Maryland vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:45 PM
  • Penn State (7-2) are -10.5 point favorites vs Maryland (6-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points

The Maryland Terrapins (6-5) visit Beaver Stadium to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in University Park.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Maryland vs. Penn State is total points.

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Maryland vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Maryland
Penn State

Maryland vs Penn State Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 67.1% confidence.

Maryland vs Penn State Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 51.8% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Maryland and Penn State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Maryland Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Maryland players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rakim Jarrett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Roman Hemby has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Dontay Demus Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Taulia Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Taulia Tagovailoa has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 66% ROI)

Best Penn State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Penn State players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Parker Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Keyvone Lee has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Sean Clifford has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+2.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Sean Clifford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Maryland has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Maryland has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Maryland has hit the Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Maryland have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Maryland has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.52 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Penn State have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Maryland Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Maryland has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Maryland is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 1.42% ROI
  • Maryland is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Maryland is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Penn State is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 8.7% ROI
  • Penn State is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
  • Penn State is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI

Maryland: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Maryland is winless (0-6) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

Maryland is 11-1 (.846) when scoring 22 or more points — tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .625

Maryland is 8-1 (.727) when not throwing an interception — tied for 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .492

Maryland is 1-9 (.077) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .319

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Maryland

#16 Penn State is 10-4 (.588) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .430

#16 Penn State is 9-3 (.600) when rushing more than 30 times — tied for 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

#16 Penn State is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .301

#10 Penn State is winless (0-5) when having a TD margin of -2 or worse since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .007

Matchup Notes for Maryland vs. Penn State

Penn State’s TEs has 6 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for third-most among P5 TEs. Maryland’s defense has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State’s TEs have 69.2 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-best among P5 TEs. Maryland’s defense has allowed 242.1 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Maryland’s TEs has 117 receptions in 21 games (5.6 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among P5 TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 4.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2021 season — tied for second-worst among FBS defenses.

Maryland Offensive Stats & Trends

Maryland’s TEs has 117 receptions in 21 games (5.6 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among P5 TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 4.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2021 season — tied for second-worst among FBS defenses.

Maryland RBs have picked up first downs on 4 receptions in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Maryland TEs have picked up first downs on 9 receptions on 3rd down this season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

Maryland TEs have 13 receptions on 3rd down this season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

Maryland TEs have averaged 5.6 receptions per game (117/21) since last season– tied for 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.4

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

#14 Penn State TEs have picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

#14 Penn State TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

#14 Penn State TEs have picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 4th most among FBS Teams

#14 Penn State RBs have averaged 3.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (61 yards / 17 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#14 Penn State TEs have picked up first downs on 9 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power 5 Teams

Maryland Terrapins Defensive Stats & Trends

Maryland has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 59 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Maryland has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 24 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Maryland has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 59 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

Maryland has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 24 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

Maryland has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 3 of their 288 carries (1%) this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 3%

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

#14 Penn State opponents has averaged 42.3 Passing Attempts per TD (719 Pass Attempts/17 Passing TDs) since last season– tied for 2nd best in FBS; Average: 20.0

#14 Penn State opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (72 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.1

#14 Penn State opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (72 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– best in FBS; Average: 4.0

#14 Penn State opponents has averaged 42.3 Passing Attempts per TD (719 Pass Attempts/17 Passing TDs) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 21.4

#14 Penn State has allowed a passer rating of just 90.3 in the Red Zone (72.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 164.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.