Massachusetts vs Rutgers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• Rutgers Scarlet Knights is a -29 point favorite vs. UMass Minutemen
• Massachusetts vs. Rutgers Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
• TV Channel: BTN

Massachusetts (0-0) visit SHI Stadium to take on Rutgers (0-0) on Sep. 3 in Piscataway, NJ. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00 pm.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -29 (-110).

The Massachusetts vs. Rutgers Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

Bet now on Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs UMass Minutemen & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Massachusetts vs. Rutgers Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Massachusetts vs Rutgers Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Rutgers will win this game with 95.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UMass Minutemen and Rutgers Scarlet Knights, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Massachusetts vs Rutgers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UMass will cover the spread with 55.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Massachusetts Best Bets Today

• Massachusetts has hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• Massachusetts has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 80% ROI)
• Massachusetts has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• Massachusetts has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.35 Units / 39% ROI)

Rutgers Best Bets Today

• Rutgers has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.95 Units / 62% ROI)
• Rutgers has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 65% ROI)
• Rutgers has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)
• Rutgers have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Rutgers has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Massachusetts: Keys to the Game vs. Rutgers

UMass was winless (0-8) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

UMass was winless (0-9) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .372

UMass was winless (0-4) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

UMass was winless (0-9) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Rutgers: Keys to the Game vs. Massachusetts

Rutgers was 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .602

Rutgers was 1-5 (.167) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Rutgers is 1-2 (.333) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2024 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .766

Rutgers was 6-4 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Matchup Notes for Massachusetts vs. Rutgers

Rutgers gained 3,193 yards on 234 receptions (13.6 YPR) last season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. UMass’s defense allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception last season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Rutgers’s WRs gained 2,594 yards on 167 receptions (15.5 YPR) last season — best among Big Ten WRs. UMass’s defense allowed 14.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Rutgers’s RBs averaged 11.1 yards after the catch last season — T-11th-best among FBS RBs. UMass’s defense allowed 11.6 RAC to RBs last season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.

UMass’s QBs threw for 1,976 passing yards in 12 games (just 164.7 YPG) last season — 20th-worst among FBS teams. Rutgers’s defense allowed 222.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

UMass’s offense threw for 1,981 passing yards in 12 games (just 165.1 YPG) last season — 18th-worst among FBS offenses. Rutgers’s defense allowed 222.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

UMass had just 165.8 receiving yards per game last season — 18th-worst among FBS skill players. Rutgers’s defense allowed 222.9 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Massachusetts Offensive Stats & Trends

UMass averaged a touchdown every 27.9 receptions (223 Rec/8 TDs) last season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.2

UMass threw 0 TDs on 104 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter last season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9

UMass’s QBs threw for 1,976 passing yards in 12 games (just 164.7 YPG) last season — 20th-worst among FBS teams. Rutgers’s defense allowed 222.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

UMass threw 8 TDs on 415 pass attempts (one TD every 51.9 Pass Attempts) last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.6

UMass WRs averaged a touchdown every 75.5 receptions (151 Rec/2 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Rutgers Offensive Stats & Trends

Rutgers TEs had no touchdowns on 45 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.2

Rutgers TEs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.3

Rutgers gained 3,193 yards on 234 receptions (13.6 YPR) last season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. UMass’s defense allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception last season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Rutgers TEs had no touchdowns on 45 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.9

Rutgers TEs had no touchdowns on 45 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.4

Massachusetts Defensive Stats & Trends

UMass allowed 7.2 touchdowns per interception (29 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

UMass allowed 7.2 touchdowns per interception (29 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

UMass tackled opponents for a loss on just 48 of 527 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

UMass allowed 218.6 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season– worst in FBS; Average: 140.7

UMass allowed passes of 20+ yards on 8 of 38 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 9%

Rutgers Defensive Stats & Trends

Rutgers allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 33 of their 370 carries (9%) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 3%

Rutgers allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 33 of their 370 carries (9%) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3%

Rutgers allowed 6.8 Yards per Carry (2,519 yards/370 carries) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Rutgers allowed 6.8 Yards per Carry (2,519 yards/370 carries) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 4.1

Rutgers allowed 9.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,194 yards / 574 touches) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 6.5

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