Memphis vs Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 2

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Arkansas State wide receiever Corey Rucker is pictured during an NCAA football game against Washington on Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021, in Seattle. Washington won 52-3.
(AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 08, 2023, 3:08 PM
  • Memphis is a -21.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas State
  • Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN+

The Memphis Tigers visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Sep. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Jonesboro.

Memphis is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-110).

The Memphis vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

Bet now on Arkansas State vs Memphis & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Memphis vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 2

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Memphis-21.5 -11058.5 -110-2500
Arkansas State +21.5 -11058.5 -110+1100

Memphis vs Arkansas State Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Memphis will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Memphis vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction for Week 2

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 78.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Memphis and Arkansas State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Bet now on Arkansas State vs Memphis and all games with BetMGM


  • Memphis has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Memphis have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Memphis have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.90 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Memphis Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Memphis players for Week 2, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Seth Henigan has hit the Passing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 41% ROI)

Memphis Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Memphis is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Memphis is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 2.39% ROI
  • Memphis is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Memphis is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Arkansas State is 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -31.01% ROI
  • Arkansas State is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Arkansas State is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Memphis

Arkansas State is winless (0-7) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .390

Arkansas State is 3-19 (.136) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .451

Arkansas State is 1-11 (.083) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .449

Arkansas State is 3-17 (.150) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .421

Matchup Notes for Memphis vs. Arkansas State

Arkansas State gained 2,718 yards on 246 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 23rd-worst among FBS skill players. Memphis’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged 24.0 targets per game since the 2021 season — 31st-highest among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 15.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2021 season — tied for ninth-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged 6.3 targets per game since the 2021 season — 15th-highest among FBS RBs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 3.8 receptions per game to RBs since the 2021 season — tied for 26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s WRs has gained 5,149 yards on 358 receptions (14.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for 30th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — third-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 934 attempts since the 2021 season — tied for 27th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts since the 2021 season — tied for eighth-best among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s WRs has gained 5,149 yards on 358 receptions (14.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for 30th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — third-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Memphis Offensive Stats & Trends

Memphis RBs have rushed for 5 TDs in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Memphis’s WRs has gained 5,149 yards on 358 receptions (14.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for 30th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — third-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 934 attempts since the 2021 season — tied for 27th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts since the 2021 season — tied for eighth-best among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s WRs has gained 5,149 yards on 358 receptions (14.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for 30th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — third-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Memphis RBs have been targeted 5 times in the 1st quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State gained 2,718 yards on 246 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 23rd-worst among FBS skill players. Memphis’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged 24.0 targets per game since the 2021 season — 31st-highest among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 15.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2021 season — tied for ninth-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged 6.3 targets per game since the 2021 season — 15th-highest among FBS RBs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 3.8 receptions per game to RBs since the 2021 season — tied for 26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State RBs averaged just 3.0 Yards per Carry (382 yards/127 carries) in the 1st half in the 2022 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Arkansas State RBs have averaged 1.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (28 yards / 21 touches) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Memphis Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Memphis did not record a sack (41 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.4

Memphis has allowed 13 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2021 season– most among Non-Power 5 Teams

Memphis has allowed just 5.1 yards per completion (66 yards/13 completions) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.0

Memphis has allowed 13 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2021 season– most in FBS

Memphis has allowed 91.0 yards from scrimmage per game this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 347.5

Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (60 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Arkansas State has allowed 6 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– most among Non-Power 5 Teams

Arkansas State has allowed 6 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (60 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15.8

Arkansas State has allowed 8 TDs in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.