Memphis vs Charlotte Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 5

Charlotte fans arrive at McColl-Richardson Field before an NCAA college football game between the Charlotte and the Campbell in Charlotte, N.C., Saturday, Aug. 31, 2013.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
Sportsbook Promos This Week
  • The Memphis Tigers are a -21.5 point favorite vs. the Charlotte 49ers
  • Memphis vs. Charlotte Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

Memphis (3-1) visit Jerry Richardson Stadium to take on Charlotte (0-4) on Oct. 3 in Charlotte, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Memphis Tigers are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (+110).

The Memphis vs. Charlotte Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

Bet now on Charlotte 49ers vs Memphis Tigers & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Memphis vs. Charlotte Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Memphis-21.5 +11054.5 -130-1400
Charlotte +49 -14554.5 -102+900

Memphis vs Charlotte Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Memphis will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Memphis Tigers and the Charlotte 49ers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Memphis vs Charlotte Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Charlotte will cover the spread with 51.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Charlotte 49ers vs Memphis Tigers and all games with BetMGM


  • Memphis has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 away games (+0.60 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Charlotte has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Charlotte has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 5 games at home (+1.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Charlotte has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.48 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Charlotte has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.15 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Charlotte have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Memphis Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Memphis Tigers is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Memphis is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 26.19% ROI
  • Memphis is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • Memphis is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Charlotte Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Charlotte 49ers is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.18 Units / -4.11% ROI).

  • Charlotte is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.5 Units / -100% ROI
  • Charlotte is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.51% ROI
  • Charlotte is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.88 Units / 42.53% ROI

Memphis: Keys to the Game vs. Charlotte

Memphis was 10-1 (.909) when not losing a fumble last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533

Memphis was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Memphis was 6-2 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Memphis was 6-2 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Charlotte: Keys to the Game vs. Memphis

Charlotte is winless (0-10) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .564

Charlotte is winless (0-12) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .449

Charlotte is winless (0-12) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .413

Charlotte is winless (0-10) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .487

Matchup Notes for Memphis vs. Charlotte

Charlotte’s RBs averaged just 4.7 yards after the catch last season — 3rd-worst among FBS RBs. Memphis’s defense allowed 12.4 RAC last season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 13.4 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s RBs has rushed for 2,739 yards on 632 carries (just 4.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-7th-worst among FBS RBs. Memphis’s defense have allowed just 4.4 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s WRs has 432 receptions in 30 games (14.4 per game) since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS WRs. Charlotte’s defense has allowed 14.2 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s WRs had 187 receptions in 13 games (14.4 per game) last season — T-33rd-best among FBS WRs. Charlotte’s defense allowed 22.8 receptions per game last season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s RBs had 2 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS RBs. Charlotte’s defense has allowed 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis Offensive Stats & Trends

Memphis TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Memphis TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Memphis QBs had 20 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Memphis RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Memphis RBs caught 6 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams

Charlotte Offensive Stats & Trends

Charlotte WRs averaged 18.4 yards per reception (2,114 yards/115 catches) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Charlotte has scored on 13% of their drives (17/131) in the 1st half since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 27%

Charlotte Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 29.0 receptions (87 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 8th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7

Charlotte fumbled 4 times last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Offenses

Charlotte WRs averaged 26.5 yards per reception (212 yards/8 catches) with 4-6 yards to go last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Memphis Defensive Stats & Trends

Memphis has not forced a fumble (145 carries) this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.2

Memphis did not record a sack (27 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8

Memphis has not forced a fumble (145 carries) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4

The Memphis defense has allowed scores on 14% of opponent drives (9/66) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 24%

Memphis allowed 89.3 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 153.3

Charlotte Defensive Stats & Trends

Charlotte has allowed 58 TDs in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 2.0

Charlotte did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2

The Charlotte defense has allowed scores on 33% of opponent drives (24/72) this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 22%

Charlotte has allowed 11 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS

Charlotte allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 18 carries (39%) on 3rd and long last season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 18%


Bet now on Charlotte 49ers vs Memphis Tigers and all games with BetMGM


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