Miami Florida vs Pitt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 14

Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi walks along the sideline as his team plays against Virginia Tech during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in Pittsburgh (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
  • Miami Florida is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Pitt
  • Miami Florida vs. Pittsburgh Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

Miami Florida (9-2) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on Pittsburgh (8-3) on Nov. 29 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Miami Florida is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Miami Florida vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Miami Florida vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Miami Florida-6.5 -11550.5 -105-275
Pittsburgh +6.5 -10550.5 -115220

Miami Florida vs Pittsburgh Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Miami (FL) will win this game with 68.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Miami Florida and Pitt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Miami Florida vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Miami (FL) will cover the spread with 50.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Miami (FL) has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Miami has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.15 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 8% ROI)

Miami Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Miami Florida is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Miami Florida is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Miami Florida is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Miami Florida is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Pitt iss 8-3 against the spread this college football season (+4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI).

  • Pittsburgh is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 12.43% ROI
  • Pittsburgh is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 30.58% ROI
  • Pittsburgh is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -38.84% ROI

Miami Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh

Miami (FL) was 8-1 (.889) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Miami (FL) was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657

Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Miami Florida

Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .617

Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661

Pittsburgh was 6-4 (.600) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Pittsburgh was 2-9 (.182) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

Matchup Notes for Miami Florida vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .617

Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661

Pittsburgh was 6-4 (.600) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Pittsburgh was 2-9 (.182) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

Miami (FL) was 8-1 (.889) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Miami (FL) was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657

Miami Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Miami (FL) was 8-1 (.889) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Miami (FL) was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657

Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .617

Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661

Pittsburgh was 6-4 (.600) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Pittsburgh was 2-9 (.182) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

Miami Florida Defensive Stats & Trends

Miami (FL) was 8-1 (.889) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Miami (FL) was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657

Pittsburgh Defensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .617

Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661

Pittsburgh was 6-4 (.600) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Pittsburgh was 2-9 (.182) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500


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