Miami Florida vs SMU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee runs out with his team before an NCAA college game against TCU on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022, in Dallas, Texas. (AP Photo/Gareth Patterson)
(AP Photo/Gareth Patterson)
  • Miami Florida is a -12.5 point favorite vs. SMU
  • Miami Florida vs. SMU Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Miami Florida (6-1) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on SMU (5-3) on Nov. 1 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Miami Florida is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Miami Florida vs. SMU Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Miami Florida vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Miami Florida-12.5 -11051.5 -115-425
SMU +12.5 -11051.5 -105325

Miami Florida vs SMU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Miami (FL) will win this game with 76.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Miami Florida and SMU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Miami Florida vs SMU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Miami has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Miami has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.10 Units / 60% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 59% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Miami Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Miami Florida is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Miami Florida is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Miami Florida is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Miami Florida is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU iss 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI).

  • SMU is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.16% ROI
  • SMU is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
  • SMU is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Miami Florida: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Miami (FL) has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 36 carries (12 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 4.8

Miami (FL) has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 213 carries (71 Carries Per TD) this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 24.4

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 35 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Miami Florida

SMU TEs averaged 22.5 yards per reception (293 yards/13 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU threw 0 TDs on 39 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1

Matchup Notes for Miami Florida vs. SMU

SMU TEs averaged 22.5 yards per reception (293 yards/13 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU threw 0 TDs on 39 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Miami (FL) has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 36 carries (12 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 4.8

Miami (FL) has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 213 carries (71 Carries Per TD) this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 24.4

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 35 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Miami Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Miami (FL) has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 36 carries (12 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 4.8

Miami (FL) has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 213 carries (71 Carries Per TD) this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 24.4

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 35 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU TEs averaged 22.5 yards per reception (293 yards/13 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU threw 0 TDs on 39 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1

Miami Florida Defensive Stats & Trends

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Miami (FL) has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 36 carries (12 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 4.8

Miami (FL) has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 213 carries (71 Carries Per TD) this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 24.4

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 35 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

SMU Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU TEs averaged 22.5 yards per reception (293 yards/13 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 183.1 passing yards per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU threw 0 TDs on 39 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1


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