Michigan State vs Maryland Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 2

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Maryland head coach Mike Locksley looks on during pre-game warm-ups before an NCAA college football game against Indiana, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in College Park, Md. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
(AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 06, 2024, 5:31 PM
  • Maryland is a -8.5 point favorite vs. Michigan State
  • Michigan State vs. Maryland Total(Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • TV Channel: BTN

The Michigan State Spartans 1-0 visit SECU Stadium to take on the Maryland Terrapins 1-0 on Sep. 7 in College Park, MD. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Maryland is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Michigan State vs. Maryland Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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Michigan State vs. Maryland Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Michigan State+8.5 -11044.5 -115+260
Maryland -8.5 -11044.5 -105-350

Michigan State vs Maryland Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Maryland will win this game with 75.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Michigan State vs Maryland Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Maryland will cover the spread with 73.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan State and Maryland and key player performances this season.


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      We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

      Best Michigan State Player Prop Bets Today

        Top NCAAF player prop bets for Maryland players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

        Best Maryland Player Prop Best Bets Today

          Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

          Michigan State is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

          • Michigan State was 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 20% ROI
          • Michigan State was 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.15 Units / -100% ROI
          • Michigan State was 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 95.24% ROI

          Maryland Against the Spread (ATS) Record

          Maryland is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

          • Maryland was 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 8.62% ROI
          • Maryland was 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
          • Maryland was 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

          Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Maryland

          Michigan State is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2022 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .464

          Michigan State is 1-9 (.100) when not forcing a fumble since the 2022 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .441

          Michigan State is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– 14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

          Michigan State is 3-9 (.250) when not forcing a fumble since the 2022 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .447

          Maryland: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

          Maryland is 14-6 (.700) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .508

          Maryland was 3-2 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– T-15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .386

          Maryland was 6-3 (.667) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .511

          Maryland is 15-7 (.652) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2022 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .486

          Matchup Notes for Michigan State vs. Maryland

          Maryland’s QBs threw for 3,331 passing yards in 12 games (277.6 YPG) last season — 21st-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense allowed 239.5 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

          Maryland’s WRs gained 2,328 yards on 169 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

          Maryland’s TEs had 64 receptions in 12 games (5.3 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 5.0 receptions per game to TEs last season — T-2nd-worst among FBS defenses.

          Michigan State gained 2,344 yards on 217 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. Maryland’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

          Michigan State’s RBs averaged just 5.2 yards after the catch last season — 10th-worst among FBS RBs. Maryland’s defense allowed just 11.1 RAC last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

          Michigan State’s RBs averaged just 5.2 yards after the catch last season — 10th-worst among FBS RBs. Maryland’s defense allowed just 4.4 RAC to RBs last season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

          Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

          Michigan State RBs averaged just 2.9 Yards per Carry (133 yards/46 carries) in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

          Michigan State gained 2,344 yards on 217 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. Maryland’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

          Michigan State RBs averaged 2.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (149 yards / 51 touches) in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

          Michigan State RBs did not rush for 0a TD on 32 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations in the 2023 season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 23.8

          Michigan State TEs have averaged 7.5 yards per target (143 yards/19 targets) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 4.7

          Maryland Offensive Stats & Trends

          Maryland’s QBs threw for 3,331 passing yards in 12 games (277.6 YPG) last season — 21st-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense allowed 239.5 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

          Maryland’s WRs gained 2,328 yards on 169 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

          Maryland’s TEs had 64 receptions in 12 games (5.3 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 5.0 receptions per game to TEs last season — T-2nd-worst among FBS defenses.

          Maryland’s offense threw for 3,352 passing yards in 12 games (279.3 YPG) last season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense allowed 239.5 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

          Maryland’s WRs gained 2,328 yards on 169 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs last season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

          Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends

          Michigan State has allowed 3.9 touchdowns per interception (51 TDs allowed, and 13 INT) since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.4

          Michigan State allowed a Completion Pct of 68% (152 completions/225 attempts) in the 1st half in the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 61%

          Michigan State has allowed 33 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-2nd-most in FBS

          Michigan State has allowed 3.9 touchdowns per interception (51 TDs allowed, and 13 INT) since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7

          Michigan State has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (289 completions/422 attempts) in the 1st half since the 2022 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

          Maryland Terrapins Defensive Stats & Trends

          Maryland allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (4 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

          Maryland has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (12 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

          Maryland allowed first downs on 17% of pass attempts on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 45%

          Maryland has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (12 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 62%

          Maryland allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (4 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%


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