Michigan vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 10, 2025, 11:26 AM

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Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley watches during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

USC is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Michigan
Michigan vs. USC Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

Michigan (4-1) visit Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on USC (4-1) on Oct. 11 in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

USC is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Michigan vs. USC Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Michigan vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Michigan	+2.5 -110	56.5 -110	105
USC	-2.5 -110	56.5 -110	-130

Michigan vs USC Prediction:

The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 53.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan and USC, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Michigan vs USC Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts USC will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Michigan Best Bets Today

Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+13.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.95 Units / 29% ROI)
Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)

USC Best Bets Today

USC has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
USC have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 42% ROI)
USC has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.25 Units / 7% ROI)
USC has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
USC has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.05 Units / 11% ROI)

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Michigan is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.6% ROI
Michigan is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Michigan is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC iss 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

USC is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 0.88% ROI
USC is 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
USC is 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Michigan WRs have averaged 39.0 yards per reception (39 yards/1 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Michigan WRs have averaged 39.0 yards per reception (39 yards/1 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Michigan WRs averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (752 yards/83 catches) last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Michigan Skill Players averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (1,678 yards/190 catches) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

Michigan Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 25.7 receptions (77 Rec/3 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.5

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Michigan has sacked opponents 4 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Michigan has sacked opponents 4 times in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-most in FBS

Michigan has sacked opponents 4 times in the Red Zone this season– most in the Big Ten

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Michigan has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 6 of 26 attempts (23%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Matchup Notes for Michigan vs. USC