- Mississippi is a -26.5 point favorite vs. Mississippi St
- Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
- TV Channel: ABC
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-9) visit Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field to take on the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) on Nov. 29 in Oxford, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.
Mississippi is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -26.5 (-110).
The Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Over/Under is 61.5 total points.
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Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Mississippi State | +26.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +1500 |
| Ole Miss | -26.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -5000 |
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Ole Miss will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi St and Mississippi, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 74.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Ole Miss Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Ole Miss has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ole Miss has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ole Miss have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ole Miss has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ole Miss have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.20 Units / 16% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Mississippi State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mississippi State Player Prop Bets Today
- Kevin Coleman Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Johnnie Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Ole Miss players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ole Miss Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Cayden Lee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Henry Parrish Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaxson Dart has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tre Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Caden Prieskorn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.45 Units / 3.7% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -45.68% ROI
- Mississippi State is 8-3 when betting the Over for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI
- Mississippi State is 3-8 when betting the Under for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
Ole Miss Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).
- Ole Miss is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -0.65% ROI
- Ole Miss is 2-9 when betting the Over for -7.95 Units / -65.43% ROI
- Ole Miss is 9-2 when betting the Under for +6.8 Units / 56.43% ROI
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Ole Miss
Mississippi State is 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .597
Mississippi State is winless (0-8) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471
Mississippi State is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451
Mississippi State is 1-10 (.091) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .435
Ole Miss: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Ole Miss is 6-2 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .427
Ole Miss is 7-2 (.778) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .613
Ole Miss is 19-3 (.864) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: .619
Ole Miss is 19-3 (.864) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .631
Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss’s offense has thrown for 3,980 passing yards in 11 games (361.8 YPG) this season — best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 248.2 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Ole Miss’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 18.5% of 372 attempts this season — 3rd-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.6% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
Ole Miss’s offense has thrown for 3,980 passing yards in 11 games (361.8 YPG) this season — best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 248.2 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs has gained 413 yards on 40 receptions (just 10.3 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among SEC TEs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs has gained 413 yards on 40 receptions (just 10.3 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among SEC TEs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has gained 2,580 yards on 197 receptions (13.1 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State’s TEs has gained 413 yards on 40 receptions (just 10.3 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among SEC TEs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State WRs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– most among SEC Teams
Mississippi State’s TEs has gained 413 yards on 40 receptions (just 10.3 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among SEC TEs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has gained 2,580 yards on 197 receptions (13.1 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State TEs have averaged a touchdown every 27.5 receptions (55 Rec/2 TDs) since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.1
Ole Miss Offensive Stats & Trends
Ole Miss Skill Players have averaged 15.1 yards per reception (7,678 yards/508 catches) since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.9
Ole Miss QBs have 138 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
Ole Miss have completed passes for 20+ yards on 138 of their 766 total passing attempts (18%) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%
Ole Miss have completed passes for 20+ yards on 69 of their 372 total passing attempts (18%) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%
Ole Miss Skill Players have averaged 15.7 yards per reception (3,980 yards/253 catches) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 44 of 472 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.
Mississippi State has averaged 0.7 sacks per game this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2.5
Mississippi State has allowed 31 TDs in the Red Zone this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.6
Mississippi State has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (8/317) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%
Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 102 of 921 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.
Ole Miss Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends
Ole Miss has tackled opponents for a loss on 101 of 403 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 17%.
Ole Miss has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 403 carries (67.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.1
Ole Miss has averaged 4.5 sacks per game this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.2
Ole Miss has averaged 3.5 sacks per game since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 2.5
Ole Miss has sacked opponents 50 times this season– most among Power Conference Teams
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