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Mississippi State vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 31, 2022, 11:14 AM
  • – (3-5) are point favorites vs – (3-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-3) visit Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) on Oct. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Tuscaloosa.

– are betting favorites in Week 8, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Mississippi State vs. Alabama is total points.

Bet now on Alabama vs Mississippi State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 8

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Mississippi State
Alabama

Mississippi State vs Alabama Prediction for Week 8

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 77.8% confidence.

Mississippi State vs Alabama Spread Prediction for Week 8

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 79.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi State and Alabama, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

Best Mississippi State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 8, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jaden Walley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Rara Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 45% ROI)
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    Best Alabama Player Prop Best Bets Today

    Top NCAAF player prop bets for Alabama players for Week 8, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.30 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Bryce Young has hit the Completions Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jermaine Burton has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Bryce Young has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
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  • Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 23% ROI)
    •
  • Alabama has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.15 Units / 5% ROI)
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    Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Mississippi State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Mississippi State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Mississippi State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Mississippi State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Alabama has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Alabama is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Alabama is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Alabama is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama

    #23 Mississippi State is 6-3 (.667) when not losing a fumble — tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .433

    #23 Mississippi State is 1-4 (.143) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

    Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

    #1 Alabama is 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2020 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .376

    #1 Alabama is 17-1 (.895) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .419

    #1 Alabama is 16-1 (.800) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .411

    #1 Alabama is undefeated (17-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2020 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .511

    Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Alabama

    Alabama’s TEs has 61 receptions in 21 games (just 2.9 per game) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 1.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2021 season — tied for best among FBS defenses.

    Alabama’s WRs has been targeted 522 times since the 2021 season — third-most among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 4,392 receiving yards since the 2021 season — fifth-most among SEC defenses.

    Alabama has been targeted 187 times this season — fourth-most among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 1,384 receiving yards this season — fourth-most among SEC defenses.

    Mississippi State has 2.8 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among SEC defenses.

    Mississippi State has 35 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — most among Power 5 skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed 19 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for third-most among SEC defenses.

    Mississippi State has been targeted 957 times since the 2021 season — most among FBS skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed 4,578 receiving yards since the 2021 season — fourth-most among SEC defenses.

    Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

    #16 Mississippi State RBs have been targeted 14.1 times per game (267/19) since last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

    #16 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 37.2 receptions per game (707/19) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.8

    #16 Mississippi State Skill Players have been targeted 50.4 times per game (957/19) since last season– highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 30.5

    #16 Mississippi State WRs have 20 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among Power 5 Teams

    #16 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 37.2 receptions per game (707/19) since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

    Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

    #3 Alabama QBs have 19 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go since last season– most among FBS Teams

    #3 Alabama QBs have 33 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since last season– most among FBS Teams

    #3 Alabama Skill Players have 1,917 receiving yards on 3rd down since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

    #3 Alabama Skill Players have 1,917 receiving yards on 3rd down since last season– most among FBS Teams

    #3 Alabama WRs have 1,470 receiving yards on 3rd down since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

    Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

    #16 Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 8 of 104 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

    #16 Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 8 of 104 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

    #16 Mississippi State has allowed 7.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (432 yards / 56 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 5.1

    #16 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 31 carries (29%) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

    #16 Mississippi State has allowed 7.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (432 yards / 56 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.0

    Alabama Crimson Tide Defensive Stats & Trends

    #3 Alabama has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (71/662) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

    #3 Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on 11 of 46 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12%.

    #3 Alabama has sacked opponents 71 times since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

    #3 Alabama has allowed 18.6 yards per completion (909 yards/49 completions) on 1st down this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.3

    #3 Alabama has sacked opponents 71 times since last season– most in FBS

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

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