Mississippi State vs Illinois Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: ReliaQuest Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 02, 2023, 11:35 AM
  • Mississippi State (9-4) are -3.5 point favorites vs Illinois (8-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN2

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (8-5) on Jan. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Tampa.

Mississippi State are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Mississippi State vs. Illinois Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Mississippi State vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Mississippi State-3.5 -11046.5 -110-175
Illinois +3.5 -11046.5 -110+145

Mississippi State vs Illinois Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Illinois will win this game with 60.3% confidence.

Mississippi State vs Illinois Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 60.3% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi State and Illinois, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Mississippi State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Caleb Ducking has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jaden Walley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tommy DeVito has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Chase Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Chase Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Isaiah Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Tommy DeVito has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+12.82 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Mississippi State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Mississippi State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Mississippi State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Illinois is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Illinois is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Illinois is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

#22 Mississippi State is 5-2 (.714) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494

#22 Mississippi State is 3-1 (.600) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .463

#22 Mississippi State is 1-3 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495

#22 Mississippi State is undefeated (5-0) when scoring 22 or more points — tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .525

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

Illinois is 4-8 (.308) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494

Illinois is 3-8 (.273) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .496

Illinois is 6-3 (.600) when making 7 or more explosive plays — tied for 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .450

Illinois is 4-2 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks — tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .483

Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Illinois

There are no matchup notes available for this game

There are no matchup notes available for this game

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

#25 Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.5 receptions per game (611/24) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.0

#25 Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.5 receptions per game (611/24) since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

#25 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 36.4 receptions per game (873/24) since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

#25 Mississippi State Skill Players have been targeted 50.4 times per game (1,209/24) since last season– highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 30.5

#25 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 36.4 receptions per game (873/24) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.6

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Illinois Skill Players have averaged just 6.9 yards per reception (138 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

Illinois Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 34.5 receptions (69 Rec/2 TDs) in close and late situations since last season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.4

Illinois Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 34.5 receptions (69 Rec/2 TDs) in close and late situations since last season– 5th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Illinois Skill Players have averaged just 6.9 yards per reception (138 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Illinois WRs have averaged just 10.5 yards per reception (1,681 yards/160 catches) this season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.2

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#25 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 13 of 45 carries (29%) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

#25 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 13 of 45 carries (29%) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 17%

#25 Mississippi State has allowed 7.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (517 yards / 73 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.9

#25 Mississippi State has allowed first downs on 21% of pass attempts on 1st down since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 27%

#25 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 23 carries (30%) on 3rd and long this season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends

Illinois has allowed a passer rating of just 92.5 (353.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 127.6

Illinois opponents has averaged 6.9 Passing Attempts per TD (76 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 4.0

Illinois has averaged 1.91 interceptions per game (21/11) this season– best in FBS; Average: 0.82

Illinois has allowed a passer rating of just 92.5 (353.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 130.7

Illinois has 21 interceptions this season– most in FBS


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.