- Mississippi State (9-4) are -3.5 point favorites vs Illinois (8-5)
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch the game on ESPN2
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (8-5) on Jan. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Tampa.
Mississippi State are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Mississippi State vs. Illinois Over/Under is 46.5 total points.
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Mississippi State vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 18
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Mississippi State | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -175 |
| Illinois | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +145 |
Mississippi State vs Illinois Prediction for Week 18
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Illinois will win this game with 60.3% confidence.
Mississippi State vs Illinois Spread Prediction for Week 18
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 60.3% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi State and Illinois, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Bet now on Illinois vs Mississippi State and all games with BetMGM
Best Mississippi State Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Caleb Ducking has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaden Walley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tommy DeVito has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Chase Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Chase Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Isaiah Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Tommy DeVito has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+12.82 Units / 54% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Mississippi State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Mississippi State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Mississippi State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Illinois is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Illinois is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Illinois is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois
#22 Mississippi State is 5-2 (.714) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494
#22 Mississippi State is 3-1 (.600) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .463
#22 Mississippi State is 1-3 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495
#22 Mississippi State is undefeated (5-0) when scoring 22 or more points — tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .525
Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Illinois is 4-8 (.308) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494
Illinois is 3-8 (.273) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .496
Illinois is 6-3 (.600) when making 7 or more explosive plays — tied for 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .450
Illinois is 4-2 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks — tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .483
Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Illinois
There are no matchup notes available for this game
There are no matchup notes available for this game
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
#25 Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.5 receptions per game (611/24) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.0
#25 Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.5 receptions per game (611/24) since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
#25 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 36.4 receptions per game (873/24) since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0
#25 Mississippi State Skill Players have been targeted 50.4 times per game (1,209/24) since last season– highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 30.5
#25 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 36.4 receptions per game (873/24) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.6
Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Illinois Skill Players have averaged just 6.9 yards per reception (138 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3
Illinois Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 34.5 receptions (69 Rec/2 TDs) in close and late situations since last season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.4
Illinois Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 34.5 receptions (69 Rec/2 TDs) in close and late situations since last season– 5th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Illinois Skill Players have averaged just 6.9 yards per reception (138 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1
Illinois WRs have averaged just 10.5 yards per reception (1,681 yards/160 catches) this season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.2
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
#25 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 13 of 45 carries (29%) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%
#25 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 13 of 45 carries (29%) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 17%
#25 Mississippi State has allowed 7.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (517 yards / 73 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.9
#25 Mississippi State has allowed first downs on 21% of pass attempts on 1st down since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 27%
#25 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 23 carries (30%) on 3rd and long this season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%
Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends
Illinois has allowed a passer rating of just 92.5 (353.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 127.6
Illinois opponents has averaged 6.9 Passing Attempts per TD (76 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 4.0
Illinois has averaged 1.91 interceptions per game (21/11) this season– best in FBS; Average: 0.82
Illinois has allowed a passer rating of just 92.5 (353.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 130.7
Illinois has 21 interceptions this season– most in FBS
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