Kentucky WildcatsMississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

min read

AP Photos

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 8:50 AM

– (2-4) are point favorites vs – (2-4)
Total (Over/Under): points
Watch the game on SEC Network

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-2) visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (5-2) on Oct. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Lexington.

– are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky is total points.

Bet now on Kentucky vs Mississippi State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 7

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Mississippi State
Kentucky

Mississippi State vs Kentucky Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Mississippi State will win this game with 61.1% confidence.

Mississippi State vs Kentucky Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 55.4% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi State and Kentucky, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

Best Mississippi State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Dillon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Jaden Walley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Caleb Ducking has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Rara Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.75 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kentucky players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Tayvion Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Will Levis has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Chris Rodriguez Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)

Will Levis has hit the TD Passes Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.40 Units / 52% ROI)

Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 69% ROI)

Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI)

Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)

Mississippi State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 34% ROI)

Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)

Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.75 Units / 15% ROI)

Kentucky have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.35 Units / 25% ROI)

Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)

Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)

Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 9% ROI)

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Mississippi State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Mississippi State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Mississippi State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Kentucky is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Kentucky is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Kentucky is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

#23 Mississippi State is 1-4 (.143) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

#23 Mississippi State is 6-3 (.667) when not losing a fumble — tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .433

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

#13 Kentucky is 6-1 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks — tied for 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .444

#13 Kentucky is 8-4 (.615) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .368

#13 Kentucky is 8-1 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush since the 2020 season– tied for 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .518

Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

Kentucky’s TEs has 20 receptions in 5 games (4.0 per game) this season — tied for second-best among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 20.6 receptions per game this season — fourth-worst among SEC defenses.

Kentucky’s TEs have 45.6 receiving yards per game this season — third-best among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 229.0 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among SEC defenses.

Kentucky have 254.0 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 229.0 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among SEC defenses.

Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 14.8 receptions per game this season — second-best among SEC defenses.

Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 14.8 receptions per game this season — tied for fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

#23 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 18.9 receptions per game (321/17) in the 2nd half since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.7

#23 Mississippi State Skill Players have been targeted 51.5 times per game (876/17) since last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.7

#23 Mississippi State WRs have averaged 13.6 receptions per game (231/17) in the 2nd half since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.8

#23 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 18.9 receptions per game (321/17) in the 2nd half since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 8.8

Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 14.8 receptions per game this season — second-best among SEC defenses.

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

#13 Kentucky RBs have averaged 0.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (3 yards / 5 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 7.4

#13 Kentucky RBs have averaged 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (68 yards / 25 touches) on 3rd down since last season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

#13 Kentucky RBs have averaged 6.8 Yards per Carry (680 yards/100 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

#13 Kentucky WRs have averaged 20.1 yards per reception (544 yards/27 catches) with 7-10 yards to go this season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.5

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#23 Mississippi State has allowed 8.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (392 yards / 46 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.0

#23 Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 6 of 83 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

#23 Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 6 of 83 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

#23 Mississippi State has allowed 30.5 carries per game (518 carries / 17 games) since last season– 4th lowest in FBS; Average: 36.6

#23 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 26 carries (27%) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

#13 Kentucky has allowed no passing TDs (119 pass attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 21.5

#13 Kentucky has allowed no passing TDs (119 pass attempts) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 26.7

#13 Kentucky has not allowed any touchdowns on 60 completions this season– best in FBS; Average: 12.9

#13 Kentucky has not allowed any touchdowns on 60 completions this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15.8

#13 Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 72 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Kentucky vs Mississippi State and all NCAAF games with BetMGM

College Football Betting at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author