Mississippi State vs Minnesota Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 2

• Minnesota Golden Gophers is a -1 point favorite vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
• Mississippi State vs. Minnesota Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
• TV Channel: CBS

Mississippi State (1-0) visit Huntington Bank Stadium to take on Minnesota (1-0) on Sep. 12 in Minneapolis, MN. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are betting favorites in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -1 (-105).

The Mississippi State vs. Minnesota Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Mississippi State vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Mississippi State vs Minnesota Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Mississippi State will win this game with 52.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Minnesota Golden Gophers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Mississippi State vs Minnesota Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 52.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Mississippi State Best Bets Today

• Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Mississippi State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.80 Units / 39% ROI)

Minnesota Best Bets Today

• Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+7.15 Units / 74% ROI)
• Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 62% ROI)
• Minnesota has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.60 Units / 91% ROI)
• Minnesota has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State Bulldogs is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Mississippi State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.5% ROI
• Mississippi State is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Mississippi State is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Minnesota Golden Gophers is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Minnesota is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Minnesota is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Minnesota is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota

Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Mississippi State was winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Mississippi State was winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

Minnesota was 7-2 (.778) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 26th-best in FBS; Average: .575

Minnesota was 2-7 (.222) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .450

Minnesota was 2-7 (.222) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .450

Minnesota was 2-7 (.222) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .502

Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Minnesota

Minnesota’s WRs had just 121.5 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 175.8 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Minnesota averaged just 9.8 yards after the catch last season — 8th-worst among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 RAC last season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Minnesota averaged just 9.8 yards after the catch last season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 RAC last season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s TEs had 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-best among SEC TEs. Minnesota’s defense allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s offense gave up 45 sacks last season — 4th-most among FBS offenses. Minnesota’s defense sacked the quarterback 39 times last season — 2nd-most among Big Ten defenses.

Mississippi State’s offense has given up45 sacks since the 2024 season — T-5th-most among FBS offenses. Minnesota’s defense has sacked the quarterback 40 times since the 2024 season — 2nd-most among Big Ten defenses.

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State TEs had just one touchdown on 43 receptions last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.2

Mississippi State gained 40+ yards on 20 of their 243 receptions (8%) last season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-7th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.1

Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota TEs averaged 18.8 yards per reception (113 yards/6 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0

Minnesota’s WRs had just 121.5 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 175.8 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Minnesota TEs averaged 16.1 yards per target (113 yards/7 targets) on 3rd and long last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 6.4

Minnesota TEs averaged 22.0 yards per reception (22 yards/1 catches) with 4-6 yards to go last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.6

Minnesota QBs averaged just -3.3 Yards per Carry (-121 yards/37 carries) last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 3.1

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (240 completions/341 attempts) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 60%

Mississippi State did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Mississippi State allowed 33 TDs in the Red Zone last season– most in the SEC

Mississippi State allowed 2,603 rushing yards last season– most in the SEC

Mississippi State allowed 33 TDs in the Red Zone last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.6

Minnesota Defensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota tackled opponents for a loss on 89 of 423 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) last season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 16%.

Minnesota allowed first downs on 78% of pass attempts on 3rd and short last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 49%

Minnesota did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Minnesota tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 70 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Minnesota did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

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