Mississippi State vs Mississippi Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 22, 2022, 7:17 PM
  • Mississippi (8-3) are -2.5 point favorites vs Mississippi State (7-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 59 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4) visit Vaught-Hemingway Stadium to take on the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Oxford.

Mississippi are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Over/Under is 59 total points.

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Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Mississippi State+2.5 -10559 -110+110
Mississippi -2.5 -11559 -110-135

Mississippi State vs Mississippi Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Ole Miss will win this game with 56.4% confidence.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ole Miss will cover the spread with 70.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi State and Mississippi, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Mississippi State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jaden Walley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Caleb Ducking has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jo’quavious Marks has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Rara Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 8 games (+1.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ole Miss have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State has gone 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 0% ROI).

  • Mississippi State is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 5.43% ROI
  • Mississippi State is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
  • Mississippi State is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Mississippi Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi has gone 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / 0% ROI).

  • Mississippi is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 6.69% ROI
  • Mississippi is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Mississippi is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi

Mississippi State is undefeated (3-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .458

Mississippi State is 4-1 (.571) when making 7 or more explosive plays — tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .438

Mississippi State is undefeated (2-0) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .453

Mississippi State is 3-1 (.600) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .458

Mississippi: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

#20 Ole Miss is 15-2 (.789) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: .631

#20 Ole Miss is 12-3 (.632) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .458

#20 Ole Miss is 6-2 (.750) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .494

#20 Ole Miss is 14-3 (.737) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-best in FBS; Average: .516

Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Mississippi

Ole Miss’s RBs has 26 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for most among FBS RBs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 19 rushing TDs this season — third-most among SEC defenses.

Ole Miss’s RBs has 21 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among FBS RBs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 19 rushing TDs this season — third-most among SEC defenses.

Ole Miss’s offense has 5,584 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fourth-most among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 3,058 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fourth-fewest among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State has gained 3,103 yards on 328 receptions (just 9.5 YPR) this season — worst among Power 5 skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State has gained 8,025 yards on 846 receptions (just 9.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — worst among Power 5 skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State has gained 8,025 yards on 846 receptions (just 9.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-worst among FBS skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 36.8 receptions per game (846/23) since the 2021 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.8 receptions per game (593/23) since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.8 receptions per game (593/23) since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.0

Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 32.8 receptions per game (328/10) — best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 36.8 receptions per game (846/23) since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.6

Mississippi Offensive Stats & Trends

#20 Ole Miss RBs have averaged 7.7 Yards per Carry (578 yards/75 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

#20 Ole Miss RBs have averaged 221.0 rushing yards per game (2,210/10) — 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 131.3

#20 Ole Miss RBs have averaged 6.3 Yards per Carry (2,210 yards/352 carries) — tied for 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

#20 Ole Miss Skill Players have averaged just 10.2 yards per reception (518 yards/51 catches) on 3rd and long since last season– tied for 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

#20 Ole Miss Skill Players have fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State has allowed 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (510 yards / 67 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.9

Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 12 of 42 carries (29%) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 6 of 20 carries (30%) on 3rd and long this season– tied for 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

Mississippi State has allowed 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (510 yards / 67 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 5.0

Mississippi State has allowed 8 TDs in close and late situations this season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Ole Miss Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

#20 Ole Miss has allowed a Completion Pct of 93% (13 completions/14 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 60%

#20 Ole Miss has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 7 of 757 attempts (1%) since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 2%

#20 Ole Miss has allowed 13 TD passes in the Red Zone — tied for 3rd-most among Power 5 Teams

#20 Ole Miss has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 7 of 757 attempts (1%) since last season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

#20 Ole Miss has allowed first downs on 26% of rush attempts in the Red Zone this season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 17%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.