Mississippi State vs South Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The South Carolina Gamecocks are a -3.5 point favorite vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs
• Mississippi State vs. South Carolina Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
• TV Channel: SECN

Mississippi State (2-0) visit Williams-Brice Stadium to take on South Carolina (2-0) on Sep. 19 in Columbia, SC. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 pm.

The South Carolina Gamecocks are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-112).

The Mississippi State vs. South Carolina Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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Mississippi State vs. South Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Mississippi State vs South Carolina Prediction:

The winning team model predicts South Carolina will win this game with 57.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the South Carolina Gamecocks, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Mississippi State vs South Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Carolina will cover the spread with 56.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Mississippi State Best Bets Today

• Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 97% ROI)
• Mississippi State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)

South Carolina Best Bets Today

• South Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 2% ROI)
• South Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 2% ROI)
• South Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• South Carolina has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• South Carolina have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State Bulldogs is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Mississippi State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.87% ROI
• Mississippi State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI
• Mississippi State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI

South Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Carolina Gamecocks is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• South Carolina is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• South Carolina is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• South Carolina is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. South Carolina

Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Mississippi State was 1-6 (.143) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

Mississippi State was winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

South Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

South Carolina was undefeated (7-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631

South Carolina was 9-3 (.750) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .624

South Carolina was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .632

South Carolina was 8-2 (.800) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. South Carolina

South Carolina’s WRs gained 2,022 yards on 134 receptions (15.1 YPR) last season — 5th-best among Power 5 WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs gained 2,022 yards on 134 receptions (15.1 YPR) last season — 5th-best among Power 5 WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs gained 2,022 yards on 134 receptions (15.1 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. South Carolina’s defense allowed just 12.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. South Carolina’s defense allowed just 12.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged 14.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. South Carolina’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.1

Mississippi State gained 40+ yards on 20 of their 243 receptions (8%) last season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

Mississippi State TEs had just one touchdown on 43 receptions last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.2

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. South Carolina’s defense allowed just 12.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

South Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

South Carolina Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 4.5 receptions (9 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

South Carolina TEs had no touchdowns on 36 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.2

South Carolina threw one TD on 93 pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season– 7th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9

South Carolina’s WRs gained 2,022 yards on 134 receptions (15.1 YPR) last season — 5th-best among Power 5 WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs gained 2,022 yards on 134 receptions (15.1 YPR) last season — 5th-best among Power 5 WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (10/341) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%

Mississippi State allowed 2,603 rushing yards last season– most in the SEC

Mississippi State allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (240 completions/341 attempts) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 60%

Mississippi State averaged a sack every 34.1 pass attempts (341 Pass Attempts/10 Sacks) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 12.3

Mississippi State allowed 456.4 yards from scrimmage per game last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 341.3

South Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends

South Carolina had no interceptions and 1 TD passes allowed last week– 4th-worst in the SEC; Average: 0.8

South Carolina allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (9 completions/29 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

South Carolina allowed a Completion Pct of just 45% (23 completions/51 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go last season– best in the SEC; Average: 60%

South Carolina’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 24% of PATs last season– 2nd-highest in FBS; Average: 8%

South Carolina’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 24% of PATs last season– 2nd-highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

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