Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a -4 point favorite vs. the Missouri Tigers
• Missouri vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
• TV Channel: SECN

Missouri (3-0) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on Mississippi State (3-0) on Sep. 26 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 pm.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -4 (-145).

The Missouri vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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Missouri vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts will win this game with confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Missouri Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Missouri vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts will cover the spread with confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Missouri Tigers and all games with BetMGM

Missouri Best Bets Today

• Missouri has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Missouri have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Mississippi State Best Bets Today

• Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+3.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Mississippi State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.20 Units / 15% ROI)

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri Tigers is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI).

• Missouri is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.77% ROI
• Missouri is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Missouri is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State Bulldogs is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 92.31% ROI).

• Mississippi State is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 8.08% ROI
• Mississippi State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI
• Mississippi State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

Missouri was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604

Missouri was 8-1 (.889) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Mississippi State was 1-8 (.111) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

Matchup Notes for Missouri vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State’s TEs gained 423 yards on 44 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) last season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. Missouri’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s TEs gained 423 yards on 44 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) last season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s WRs had just 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-14th-worst among FBS WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s TEs had 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-best among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-worst among SEC defenses.

Missouri’s WRs had just 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-14th-worst among FBS WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-worst among SEC defenses.

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.0 receptions (161 Rec/7 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 11.4

Missouri RBs have averaged 203.8 rushing yards per game (2,649/13) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 123.3

Missouri RBs averaged 203.8 rushing yards per game (2,649/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 123.3

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.0 receptions (161 Rec/7 TDs) this season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.0

Missouri TEs averaged just 7.8 yards per reception (186 yards/24 catches) with 7-10 yards to go last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.9

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.1

Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.1

Mississippi State have gained 40+ yards on 20 of their 243 receptions (8%) this season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

Mississippi State gained 40+ yards on 20 of their 243 receptions (8%) last season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

Mississippi State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Missouri Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 49% (23 completions/47 attempts) in close and late situations this season– best in the SEC; Average: 61%

Missouri has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most in the SEC

Missouri has allowed opponents to catch just 23 of 46 passes (50% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– best in the SEC; Average: 62%

Missouri sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone last season– most in the SEC

Missouri tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 31 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– best in the SEC; Average: 11%.

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (10/341) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%

Mississippi State allowed 216.9 rushing yards per game (2,603/12) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 131.4

Mississippi State allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (240 completions/341 attempts) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 60%

Mississippi State did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 13.7

Mississippi State allowed 201.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 130.2

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