Missouri vs Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • Tennessee (8-1) are -21 point favorites vs Missouri (4-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
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The Missouri Tigers (5-6) visit Neyland Stadium to take on the Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Knoxville.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Missouri vs. Tennessee is total points.

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Missouri vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Missouri
Tennessee

Missouri vs Tennessee Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 75.9% confidence.

Missouri vs Tennessee Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 69.4% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Missouri and Tennessee, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Missouri Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Missouri players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brady Cook has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Brady Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Tauskie Dove has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Best Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Tennessee players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Hendon Hooker has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.45 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Jabari Small has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+13.55 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Missouri have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+15.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Missouri is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -2.62% ROI
  • Missouri is 1-8 when betting the Over for -7.8 Units / -78.79% ROI
  • Missouri is 8-1 when betting the Under for +6.9 Units / 69.7% ROI

Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tennessee has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Tennessee is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 42.97% ROI
  • Tennessee is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Tennessee is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee

Missouri is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties — tied for 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .522

Missouri is 2-10 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Missouri is 2-13 (.133) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2020 season– tied for 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .360

Missouri is 2-7 (.222) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497

Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

#3 Tennessee is 1-4 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception — tied for 15th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .308

#8 Tennessee is 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2020 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .319

#8 Tennessee is 3-10 (.231) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2020 season– tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .392

#8 Tennessee is 2-13 (.118) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2020 season– 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .350

Matchup Notes for Missouri vs. Tennessee

Tennessee has gained 6,015 yards on 423 receptions (14.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Missouri’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.

Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 2,673 passing yards in 8 games (334.1 YPG) this season — third-best among FBS offenses. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 210.6 passing yards per game this season — fifth-best among SEC defenses.

Tennessee’s WRs have 300.0 receiving yards per game this season — best among Power 5 WRs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 198.6 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-best among SEC defenses.

Missouri’s TEs has 5 receptions in 7 games (just 0.7 per game) this season — tied for third-worst among P5 TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.2 receptions per game this season — worst among P5 defenses.

Missouri’s TEs has 5 receptions in 7 games (just 0.7 per game) this season — tied for third-worst among P5 TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.2 receptions per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.

Missouri’s TEs has 5 receptions in 7 games (just 0.7 per game) this season — tied for third-worst among P5 TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.2 receptions per game this season — worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 38.0 receptions (114 Rec/3 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 38.0 receptions (114 Rec/3 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 25.8 receptions (309 Rec/12 TDs) since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 25.8 receptions (309 Rec/12 TDs) since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

Missouri Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 29.4 receptions (147 Rec/5 TDs) this season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee has gained 6,015 yards on 423 receptions (14.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Missouri’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.

#5 Tennessee WRs have averaged 22.5 yards per reception (699 yards/31 catches) on 3rd and long since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.9

#5 Tennessee TEs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– tied for 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.1

#5 Tennessee WRs have caught 23 touchdown passes this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

#5 Tennessee Skill Players have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (852 yards/44 catches) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has allowed a passer rating of 173.0 in close and late situations (88.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 125.8

Missouri has allowed a passer rating of 173.0 in close and late situations (88.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 125.6

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 49% (66 completions/134 attempts) in the 1st half this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 62%

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 49% (66 completions/134 attempts) in the 1st half this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Missouri has not allowed a first down on any of their opponents’ 22 rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– tied for best in FBS; Average: 16%

Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Stats & Trends

#5 Tennessee has allowed 510 completions since last season– 2nd most in FBS

Opponents have averaged 24.3 completions per game (510 / 21) against #5 Tennessee since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.4

#5 Tennessee has allowed 6,115 Passing Yards since last season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

Opponents have averaged 26.2 completions per game (210 / 8) against #5 Tennessee this season– worst in FBS; Average: 19.2

#5 Tennessee has allowed 202.1 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since last season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 166.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.