Navy vs Central Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:25 AM
  • Central Florida (8-2) are -16.5 point favorites vs Navy (3-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points

The Navy Midshipmen (4-7) visit FBC Mortgage Stadium to take on the UCF Knights (8-3) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orlando.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Navy vs. Central Florida is total points.

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Navy vs. Central Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Navy
Central Florida

Navy vs Central Florida Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 72.2% confidence.

Navy vs Central Florida Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 51.8% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and Central Florida, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Navy have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 away games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Navy have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • UCF has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Navy has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Navy is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -13.6% ROI
  • Navy is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • Navy is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Central Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Central Florida is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 3.74% ROI
  • Central Florida is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Central Florida is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Navy: Keys to the Game vs. Central Florida

Navy is winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .352

Navy is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards — tied for 11th-worst in FBS; Average: .451

Navy is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 200 or more passing yards — tied for 11th-worst in FBS; Average: .446

Navy is 1-10 (.091) when not forcing a fumble — 11th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Central Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Navy

UCF is 9-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble — tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .508

UCF is 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush — tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .591

UCF is 13-3 (.812) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .562

Matchup Notes for Navy vs. Central Florida

UCF’s offense has 23 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS offenses. Navy’s defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs this season — tied for second-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

UCF’s QBs has 720 rushing yards this season — third-most among FBS teams. Navy’s defense has allowed 755 rushing yards this season — third-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

UCF’s offense has 23 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS offenses. Navy’s defense has allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Navy’s WRs has gained 855 yards on 51 receptions (16.8 YPR) since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS WRs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2021 season — second-best among FBS defenses.

Navy’s WRs has gained 855 yards on 51 receptions (16.8 YPR) since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS WRs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-best among FBS defenses.

Navy’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.6% of 199 attempts since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.2% of attempts since the 2021 season — third-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy Offensive Stats & Trends

Navy Skill Players have averaged just 4.3 receptions per game (90/21) since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Navy Skill Players have averaged just 4.9 receptions per game (44/9) this season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.2

Navy WRs have averaged 19.0 yards per reception (513 yards/27 catches) this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Navy Skill Players have averaged 17.4 yards per reception (765 yards/44 catches) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

Navy WRs have averaged just 2.4 receptions per game (51/21) since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Central Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

#17 UCF QBs have rushed for 5 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

#17 UCF have rushed for 23 TDs in the Red Zone this season– tied for 4th most among FBS Offenses

UCF’s offense has 23 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS offenses. Navy’s defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs this season — tied for second-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

#17 UCF QBs have rushed for 247 yards in the 1st quarter this season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

UCF’s QBs has 720 rushing yards this season — third-most among FBS teams. Navy’s defense has allowed 755 rushing yards this season — third-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Navy Midshipmen Defensive Stats & Trends

Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 61 of 255 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Navy has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 44 of 269 attempts (16%) this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 10%

Navy has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 44 of 269 attempts (16%) this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%

Navy has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 24 of 574 attempts (4%) since last season– tied for 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 61 of 255 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

UCF Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

#17 UCF opponents has averaged 38.1 Passing Attempts per TD (800 Pass Attempts/21 Passing TDs) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 18.7

#17 UCF has intercepted 4 of 335 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 36.7

#17 UCF has allowed 21 touchdowns on 463 completions (22.0 Completions Per TD) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.3

#17 UCF opponents has averaged 6.6 Passing Attempts per TD (93 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.9

#17 UCF opponents has averaged 38.1 Passing Attempts per TD (800 Pass Attempts/21 Passing TDs) since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 20.0


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