Navy vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Liberty Bowl

BetMGM Betting Jan 02, 2026, 9:51 AM

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FILE - Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield, center, leads the team onto the field before an NCAA college football game against Central Florida, Oct. 12, 2024, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

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Navy is a -7 point favorite vs. Cincinnati
Navy vs. Cincinnati Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
Liberty Bowl TV Channel: ESPN

Navy (10-2) visit Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium to take on Cincinnati (7-5) on Jan. 2 in Memphis, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST.

Navy is a betting favorite in the Liberty Bowl, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).

The Navy vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Navy vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Navy vs Cincinnati Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Navy will win this game with 69.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and Cincinnati, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Navy vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Navy will cover the spread with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Navy Best Bets Today

Navy has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Navy has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Navy has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Cincinnati Best Bets Today

Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Cincinnati have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)
Cincinnati have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.65 Units / 55% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Navy is 4-8 against the spread this college football season (-4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Navy is 9-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 20.9% ROI
Navy is 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
Navy is 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI

Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Cincinnati iss 6-6 against the spread this college football season (-0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Cincinnati is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 1.38% ROI
Cincinnati is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Cincinnati is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Navy: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati has intercepted 2 of 326 attempts (163.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 39.3

Cincinnati has intercepted 2 of 326 attempts (163.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 36.6

Cincinnati has intercepted 2 of 326 attempts (163.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 38.6

Cincinnati has allowed 7.0 touchdowns per interception (14 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.6

Cincinnati allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (2 completions/7 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. Navy

Cincinnati RBs averaged 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (159 yards / 19 touches) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Cincinnati RBs averaged 9.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (379 yards / 41 touches) on 3rd down last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

Cincinnati RBs averaged 7.3 Yards per Carry (601 yards/82 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 344 attempts this season — T-16th-best among FBS offenses. Navy’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.8% of attempts this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Cincinnati has gained 2,909 yards on 213 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-11th-best among FBS skill players. Navy’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for Navy vs. Cincinnati