Navy vs UAB Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Navy Midshipmen are a -7 point favorite vs. the UAB Blazers
• Navy vs. UAB Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN

Navy (1-1) visit Protective Stadium to take on UAB (1-2) on Sep. 25 in Birmingham, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The Navy Midshipmen are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Navy vs. UAB Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Navy vs. UAB Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Navy vs UAB Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Navy will win this game with 63.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Navy Midshipmen and the UAB Blazers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Navy vs UAB Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Navy will cover the spread with 52.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Navy Best Bets Today

• Navy has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• Navy has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Navy has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)

UAB Best Bets Today

• UAB has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+8.00 Units / 107% ROI)
• UAB has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• UAB has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
• UAB has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
• UAB have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Navy Midshipmen is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.18 Units / -100% ROI).

• Navy is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -100% ROI
• Navy is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.09% ROI
• Navy is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.18 Units / -100% ROI

UAB Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UAB Blazers is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI).

• UAB is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -18.35% ROI
• UAB is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• UAB is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Navy: Keys to the Game vs. UAB

Navy was undefeated (7-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .628

Navy is 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .615

Navy is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553

Navy was 4-3 (.571) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .429

UAB: Keys to the Game vs. Navy

UAB was winless (0-7) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424

UAB was winless (0-4) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477

UAB was 1-9 (.100) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .382

UAB was winless (0-9) when allowing 22 or more points last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .259

Matchup Notes for Navy vs. UAB

UAB’s WRs had 198.5 receiving yards per game last season — 27th-best among FBS WRs. Navy’s defense allowed 175.5 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

UAB’s TEs has just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-worst among FBS TEs. Navy’s defense has allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

UAB’s RBs have 38.6 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 15th-best among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed 238.9 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy gained 1,320 yards on 83 receptions (15.9 YPR) last season — 4th-best among FBS skill players. UAB’s defense allowed 15.2 Yards Per Reception last season — worst among FBS defenses.

Navy’s WRs gained 265 yards on 13 receptions (20.4 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among FBS WRs. UAB’s defense allowed 16.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy’s WRs gained 265 yards on 13 receptions (20.4 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among FBS WRs. UAB’s defense allowed 15.2 Yards Per Reception last season — worst among FBS defenses.

Navy Offensive Stats & Trends

Navy Skill Players have averaged just 6.4 receptions per game (83/13) this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Navy RBs have averaged 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (3,206 yards / 412 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Navy WRs have been targeted 2.1 times per game (27/13) this season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.3

Navy have averaged just 8.2 receptions per game (106/13) this season– 4th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.2

Navy Skill Players have been targeted 10.4 times per game (135/13) this season– 2nd-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.7

UAB Offensive Stats & Trends

UAB have thrown one TD on 115 pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season– 5th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9

UAB have thrown 0 TDs on 45 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in close and late situations this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.8

UAB RBs have averaged 16.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (149 yards / 9 touches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.6

UAB RBs averaged 16.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (149 yards / 9 touches) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.6

UAB threw one TD on 115 pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season– 5th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9

Navy Defensive Stats & Trends

Navy allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations last season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Navy allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations last season– T-most in FBS

Navy has allowed 7 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-3rd-most in FBS

Navy has allowed 7 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Navy allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (16 completions/44 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

UAB Defensive Stats & Trends

UAB has allowed 15.2 yards per completion (2,520 yards/166 completions) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.8

UAB has allowed 15.2 yards per completion (2,520 yards/166 completions) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 11.5

UAB has allowed 5.8 touchdowns per interception (23 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) this season– 5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

UAB has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 13 of 255 attempts (5%) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

UAB allowed 5.8 touchdowns per interception (23 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– 5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

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