NC State vs Connecticut Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

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Connecticut head coach Jim Mora watches before an NCAA college football game against Michigan in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2023, 1:30 PM
  • NC State is a -14.5 point favorite vs Connecticut
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The North Carolina State Wolfpack visit Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field to take on the UConn Huskies on Aug. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in East Hartford.

is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at ().

The NC State vs. Connecticut Over/Under is total points.

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NC State vs. Connecticut Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
NC State
Connecticut

NC State vs Connecticut Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts UConn will win this game with 62% confidence.

NC State vs Connecticut Spread Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UConn will cover the spread with 53.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both NC State and Connecticut, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best NC State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for NC State players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jordan Houston has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • NC State have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+4.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+17.40 Units / 161% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.54 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Connecticut has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+6.40 Units / 52% ROI)

NC State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

NC State went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • NC State went 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -33.79% ROI
  • NC State went 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -12.12% ROI
  • NC State went 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 3.79% ROI

Connecticut Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Connecticut went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Connecticut went 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.4 Units / 96.25% ROI
  • Connecticut went 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -19.7% ROI
  • Connecticut went 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 12.12% ROI

NC State: Keys to the Game vs. Connecticut

North Carolina State is 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2021 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .556

North Carolina State was 1-4 (.200) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2022 season– tied for 11th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .410

North Carolina State is 9-2 (.643) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .502

Connecticut: Keys to the Game vs. NC State

UConn is 1-16 (.059) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– tied for 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .427

UConn is winless (0-17) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .292

UConn is winless (0-8) when intercepting no passes since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .352

UConn is winless (0-12) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .445

Matchup Notes for NC State vs. Connecticut

UConn gained 1,306 yards on 139 receptions (just 9.4 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for worst among FBS skill players. North Carolina State’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.

UConn’s WRs gained 905 yards on 92 receptions (just 9.8 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for worst among FBS WRs. North Carolina State’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 29th-best among FBS defenses.

UConn’s RBs averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for seventh-worst among FBS RBs. North Carolina State’s defense allowed just 10.6 RAC in the 2022 season — fourth-best among ACC defenses.

Brennan Armstrong (NCST) scored just 0.6 TDs per interception (7/12) in the 2022 season — tied for worst of Qualified Quarterbackss. UConn’s defense allowed just 0.9 TDs per Interception in the 2022 season — tied for sixth-best among FBS defenses.

Trent Pennix (NCST) gained 111 yards on 8 receptions (13.9 YPR) in the 2022 season — fourth-best of Qualified ACC Tight Endss. UConn’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State’s WRs gained 2,213 yards on 190 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for worst among ACC WRs. UConn’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.

NC State Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State’s WRs gained 2,213 yards on 190 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for worst among ACC WRs. UConn’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State gained 2,943 yards on 266 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 27th-worst among FBS skill players. UConn’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State RBs rushed for one TD on 30 carries in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.7

North Carolina State’s WRs gained 2,213 yards on 190 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 17th-worst among FBS WRs. UConn’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State gained 2,943 yards on 266 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) in the 2022 season — fourth-worst among ACC skill players. UConn’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.

Connecticut Offensive Stats & Trends

UConn gained 1,306 yards on 139 receptions (just 9.4 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for worst among FBS skill players. North Carolina State’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.

UConn’s WRs gained 905 yards on 92 receptions (just 9.8 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for worst among FBS WRs. North Carolina State’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 29th-best among FBS defenses.

UConn’s RBs averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for seventh-worst among FBS RBs. North Carolina State’s defense allowed just 10.6 RAC in the 2022 season — fourth-best among ACC defenses.

UConn’s WRs gained 905 yards on 92 receptions (just 9.8 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for worst among FBS WRs. North Carolina State’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.

UConn’s QBs has thrown for 3,637 passing yards in 24 games (just 151.5 YPG) since the 2021 season — sixth-worst among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed just 232.2 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State Wolfpack Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State has forced 8 fumbles on 781 carries (97.6 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2021 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 42.1

North Carolina State forced 2 fumbles on 390 carries (195.0 Carries Per Fumble) in the 2022 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 40.9

North Carolina State forced 2 fumbles on 390 carries (195.0 Carries Per Fumble) in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 40.4

North Carolina State has allowed first downs on 38% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2021 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 60%

North Carolina State has forced 8 fumbles on 781 carries (97.6 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 41.5

UConn Huskies Defensive Stats & Trends

UConn has tackled opponents for a loss on just 17 of 187 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

UConn has tackled opponents for a loss on just 122 of 958 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) since the 2021 season– 12th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

UConn has sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (36/767) since the 2021 season– 5th-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

UConn has tackled opponents for a loss on just 17 of 187 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

UConn has allowed just 12.1 yards per completion (5,745 yards/473 completions) since the 2021 season– tied for 32nd-best in FBS; Average: 12.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.