NC State vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:35 AM
  • Louisville (6-4) are -4.5 point favorites vs NC State (7-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45 points

The North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-4) visit Cardinal Stadium to take on the Louisville Cardinals (7-4) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Louisville.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for NC State vs. Louisville is total points.

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NC State vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
NC State
Louisville

NC State vs Louisville Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts NC State will win this game with 52% confidence.

NC State vs Louisville Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts NC State will cover the spread with 56% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both NC State and Louisville, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Louisville Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Louisville players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Malik Cunningham has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Malik Cunningham has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Malik Cunningham has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Ahmari Huggins-Bruce has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • NC State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • NC State have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.30 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the Spread in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)

NC State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

NC State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • NC State is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -36.9% ROI
  • NC State is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI
  • NC State is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI

Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisville has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Louisville is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -8.69% ROI
  • Louisville is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Louisville is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

NC State: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville

#23 North Carolina State is undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes — tied for best in FBS; Average: .561

#14 North Carolina State is 11-1 (.917) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2020 season– tied for 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .619

Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. NC State

Louisville is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2020 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .450

Louisville is 2-11 (.154) when not forcing a fumble since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .448

Louisville is 3-11 (.214) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .493

Louisville is 3-12 (.167) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2020 season– tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .361

Matchup Notes for NC State vs. Louisville

Louisville’s QBs has 22 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — most among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — second-fewest among ACC defenses.

Louisville’s QBs has 1,557 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fourth-most among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 2,291 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fifth-fewest among P5 defenses.

Louisville’s QBs has 1,557 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fourth-most among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 2,291 rushing yards since the 2021 season — third-fewest among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs has 22 receptions in 18 games (just 1.2 per game) since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among P5 TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 20.1 receptions per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

NC State Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State’s TEs has 22 receptions in 18 games (just 1.2 per game) since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among P5 TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 20.1 receptions per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State RBs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– most among FBS Teams

North Carolina State RBs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

North Carolina State RBs have rushed for one TD on 23 carries in the Red Zone this season– worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.6

North Carolina State RBs have averaged just 3.3 Yards per Carry (177 yards/53 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisville RBs have averaged 8.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (562 yards / 63 touches) on 3rd down since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

Louisville QBs have rushed for 29 TDs since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Louisville QBs have rushed for 22 TDs in the Red Zone since last season– most among FBS Teams

Louisville RBs have averaged 8.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (228 yards / 26 touches) on 3rd down this season– tied for best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Louisville QBs have averaged 44.1 rushing yards per game (970/22) in the 1st half since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

North Carolina State Wolfpack Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State has tackled opponents for a loss on 58 of 238 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

North Carolina State has tackled opponents for a loss on 58 of 238 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 16%.

North Carolina State has 16 interceptions this season– tied for most in FBS

North Carolina State has allowed first downs on 33% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 60%

North Carolina State has averaged 1.78 interceptions per game (16/9) this season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 0.84

Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisville has forced 16 fumbles this season– 2nd most in FBS

Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (30/258) this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 7%

Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (30/258) this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

Louisville has forced 16 fumbles this season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Louisville has intercepted 12 of 258 attempts (21.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 37.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.