NC State vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 25, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • North Carolina (9-2) are -6.5 point favorites vs NC State (7-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 56 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-4) visit Kenan Memorial Stadium to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (9-2) on Nov. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The NC State vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 56 total points.

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NC State vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
NC State+6.5 -11056 -110+200
North Carolina -6.5 -11056 -110-250

NC State vs North Carolina Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 57% confidence.


Best North Carolina Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Carolina players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Drake Maye has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Drake Maye has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Antoine Green has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • NC State have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • NC State have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 10 games at home (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)
  • North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.10 Units / 41% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

NC State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

NC State has gone 2-8 against the spread this college football season (-6.8 Units / -61.82% ROI).

  • NC State is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -39.23% ROI
  • NC State is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -13.64% ROI
  • NC State is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 5.45% ROI

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina has gone 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.6 Units / 0% ROI).

  • North Carolina is 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -22.12% ROI
  • North Carolina is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • North Carolina is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

NC State: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

North Carolina State is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .298

North Carolina State is 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2021 season– 11th-best in FBS; Average: .560

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. NC State

#18 North Carolina is undefeated (8-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for best in FBS; Average: .504

#18 North Carolina is 8-1 (.889) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — tied for 4th-best in FBS; Average: .511

#18 North Carolina is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for 6th-best in FBS; Average: .497

#18 North Carolina is undefeated (6-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .429

Matchup Notes for NC State vs. North Carolina

North Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 3,166 passing yards in 9 games (351.8 YPG) this season — fourth-best among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 253.2 passing yards per game this season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s offense has thrown for 3,023 passing yards in 9 games (335.9 YPG) this season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 253.2 passing yards per game this season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs has 51 receptions in 9 games (5.7 per game) this season — fourth-best among P5 TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game this season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs have just 13.4 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among P5 TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 251.4 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

NC State Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State RBs have rushed for 2 TDs on 237 carries (118.5 Carries Per TD) — worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.8

North Carolina State RBs have rushed for one TD on 23 carries in the Red Zone this season– worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.7

North Carolina State RBs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

North Carolina State RBs have rushed for 11 TDs on 542 carries (49.3 Carries Per TD) since the 2021 season– 3rd-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.9

North Carolina State RBs have averaged just 3.2 Yards per Carry (181 yards/56 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

#18 North Carolina RBs have averaged 14.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (199 yards / 14 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

North Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 3,166 passing yards in 9 games (351.8 YPG) this season — fourth-best among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 253.2 passing yards per game this season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

#18 North Carolina WRs have averaged 20.7 yards per reception (186 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

North Carolina’s offense has thrown for 3,023 passing yards in 9 games (335.9 YPG) this season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 253.2 passing yards per game this season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs has 51 receptions in 9 games (5.7 per game) this season — fourth-best among P5 TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game this season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State Wolfpack Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State has forced one fumble on 277 carries this season– worst in FBS; Average: 39.9

North Carolina State has forced 7 fumbles on 668 carries (95.4 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 42.1

North Carolina State has forced one fumble on 277 carries this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 40.7

North Carolina State has forced 7 fumbles on 668 carries (95.4 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 41.4

North Carolina State has averaged 1.41 interceptions per game (31/22) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 0.83

North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends

#18 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 55 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

#18 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 55 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

#18 North Carolina has averaged a sack every 27.6 pass attempts (304 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) — 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4

#18 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 35 of 357 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

#18 North Carolina has allowed 1.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (64 yards / 33 touches) on 3rd and short this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.