NC State vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 14

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North Carolina helmet sits on the bench during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Minnesota, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, in Chapel Hill, N.C. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)
(AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 2:49 PM
  • North Carolina is a -3.5 point favorite vs. NC State
  • North Carolina State vs. North Carolina Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
  • TV Channel: ACCN

The North Carolina State Wolfpack (5-6) visit Kenan Stadium to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5) on Nov. 30 in Chapel Hill, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

North Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The North Carolina State vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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North Carolina State vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina State+3.5 -11555.5 -110+135
North Carolina -3.5 -10555.5 -110-165

North Carolina State vs North Carolina Prediction:

The winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both NC State and North Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Carolina State vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 52.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best North Carolina State Player Prop Bets Today

  • Kevin Concepcion has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Grayson McCall has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jordan Waters has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Grayson McCall has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best North Carolina Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Omarion Hampton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jacolby Criswell has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Bryson Nesbit has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jacolby Criswell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Omarion Hampton has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 53% ROI)

North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

NC State is 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.7 Units / -38.68% ROI).

  • North Carolina State is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -5.22% ROI
  • North Carolina State is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.55 Units / 20.99% ROI
  • North Carolina State is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.71% ROI

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina is 2-8 against the spread this college football season (-6.75 Units / -55.79% ROI).

  • North Carolina is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -10.53% ROI
  • North Carolina is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • North Carolina is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

North Carolina State is winless (0-4) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504

North Carolina State is 8-3 (.727) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .504

North Carolina State is 1-6 (.143) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

North Carolina State is 1-5 (.167) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .354

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State

North Carolina is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .474

North Carolina is 8-3 (.727) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 21st-best in FBS; Average: .526

North Carolina is 2-5 (.286) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .458

North Carolina is 2-5 (.286) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Matchup Notes for North Carolina State vs. North Carolina

North Carolina’s TEs has averaged 8.9 targets per game since the 2023 season — highest among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.7 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs has 59 receptions in 11 games (5.4 per game) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 20.4 receptions per game this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs has 130 receptions in 23 games (5.7 per game) since the 2023 season — best among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.7 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 594 yards on 39 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 594 yards on 39 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among ACC WRs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.6 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 594 yards on 39 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 594 yards on 39 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among ACC WRs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.6 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 594 yards on 39 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 594 yards on 39 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina’s TEs has averaged 8.9 targets per game since the 2023 season — highest among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.7 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina were sacked 7 times last week– 3rd-most among FBS Offenses

North Carolina RBs have averaged 9.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (425 yards / 46 touches) on 3rd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

North Carolina TEs have been targeted 8.9 times per game (204/23) since the 2023 season– 2nd-highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.2

North Carolina TEs have been targeted 34 times on 3rd down this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

North Carolina State Wolfpack Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 23 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

North Carolina State has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 23 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

North Carolina State allowed no passing TDs (36 pass attempts) last week– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.2

North Carolina State did not allow any touchdowns on 22 completions last week– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.6

North Carolina State has tackled opponents for a loss on 152 of 732 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 14 of 329 attempts (4%) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

North Carolina has averaged 3.2 sacks per game this season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: 2.1

North Carolina has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

North Carolina has allowed 44.5 receiving yards per game (490/11) to RBs this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 24.9

North Carolina has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (35/329) this season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.