NC State vs Pitt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2025, 3:14 PM

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Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi walks along the sideline as his team plays against Virginia Tech during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in Pittsburgh (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Pitt is a -6.5 point favorite vs. NC State
North Carolina State vs. Pittsburgh Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: ACCN

North Carolina State (4-3) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on Pittsburgh (5-2) on Oct. 25 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Pitt is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The North Carolina State vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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North Carolina State vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
North Carolina State	+6.5 -105	56.5 -110	200
Pittsburgh	-6.5 -115	56.5 -110	-250

North Carolina State vs Pittsburgh Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 71.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both NC State and Pitt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Carolina State vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Pittsburgh will cover the spread with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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North Carolina State Best Bets Today

NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
NC State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 31% ROI)
NC State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.87 Units / 28% ROI)
NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.27 Units / 9% ROI)
NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.98 Units / 7% ROI)

Pittsburgh Best Bets Today

Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.15 Units / 4% ROI)
Pittsburgh have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 59% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 59% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 21% ROI)

North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

NC State is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.35 Units / -17.65% ROI).

North Carolina State is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -16.78% ROI
North Carolina State is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
North Carolina State is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Pitt iss 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).

Pittsburgh is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 8.76% ROI
Pittsburgh is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 23.38% ROI
Pittsburgh is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -31.17% ROI

North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is 10-6 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .449

Pittsburgh was 6-4 (.600) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Pittsburgh is 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– 27th-best in FBS; Average: .642

Pittsburgh was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .575

Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State

North Carolina State RBs had 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

North Carolina State’s TEs has 33 receptions in 7 games (4.7 per game) this season — T-3rd-best among ACC TEs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 4.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State TEs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

North Carolina State RBs averaged 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (816 yards / 94 touches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

North Carolina State Skill Players had 20 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Matchup Notes for North Carolina State vs. Pittsburgh