Nevada vs New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 8

Footballs sit ready on the field before an NCAA football game on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Muncie, Ind. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
  • New Mexico is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
  • Nevada vs. New Mexico Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • TV Channel: FS1

Nevada (1-5) visit University Stadium (NM) to take on New Mexico (3-3) on Oct. 18 in Albuquerque, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT.

New Mexico is a betting favorite in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Nevada vs. New Mexico Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Nevada vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Nevada+11.5 -11049.5 -110350
New Mexico -11.5 -11049.5 -110-450

Nevada vs New Mexico Prediction:

The winning team model predicts New Mexico will win this game with 67.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nevada and New Mexico, key player performances this season and recent team trends.


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  • Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Nevada have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.46 Units / 11% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Nevada is 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -58.1% ROI
  • Nevada is 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Nevada is 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI

New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico iss 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • New Mexico is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 26.67% ROI
  • New Mexico is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • New Mexico is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico has allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (40 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico averaged a sack every 35.9 pass attempts (395 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.5

New Mexico has intercepted 6 of 599 attempts (99.8 pass attempts per int.) since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.7

New Mexico: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

New Mexico’s TEs has 44 receptions in 6 games (7.3 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 5.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s RBs has averaged 5.7 targets per game this season — 32nd-highest among FBS RBs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 4.5 receptions per game to RBs this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 187 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico TEs have been targeted 13 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

New Mexico QBs rushed for 19 TDs last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Matchup Notes for Nevada vs. New Mexico

New Mexico’s TEs has 44 receptions in 6 games (7.3 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 5.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s RBs has averaged 5.7 targets per game this season — 32nd-highest among FBS RBs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 4.5 receptions per game to RBs this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 187 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico TEs have been targeted 13 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

New Mexico QBs rushed for 19 TDs last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico has allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (40 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico averaged a sack every 35.9 pass attempts (395 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.5

New Mexico has intercepted 6 of 599 attempts (99.8 pass attempts per int.) since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.7

Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico has allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (40 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico averaged a sack every 35.9 pass attempts (395 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.5

New Mexico has intercepted 6 of 599 attempts (99.8 pass attempts per int.) since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.7

New Mexico Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico’s TEs has 44 receptions in 6 games (7.3 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 5.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s RBs has averaged 5.7 targets per game this season — 32nd-highest among FBS RBs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 4.5 receptions per game to RBs this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 187 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico TEs have been targeted 13 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

New Mexico QBs rushed for 19 TDs last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Nevada Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico has allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (40 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

New Mexico averaged a sack every 35.9 pass attempts (395 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.5

New Mexico has intercepted 6 of 599 attempts (99.8 pass attempts per int.) since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.7

New Mexico Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico’s TEs has 44 receptions in 6 games (7.3 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 5.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s RBs has averaged 5.7 targets per game this season — 32nd-highest among FBS RBs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 4.5 receptions per game to RBs this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 187 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico TEs have been targeted 13 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

New Mexico QBs rushed for 19 TDs last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams


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