Nevada vs UNLV Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 14

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UNLV Rebels wide receiver Ricky White (11) runs a route during an NCAA football game against the California Golden Bears on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022 in Berkeley, Calif. (AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)
(AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 2:27 PM
  • UNLV is a -17.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
  • Nevada vs. UNLV Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
  • TV Channel: CBSSN

The Nevada Wolf Pack (3-9) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the UNLV Rebels (9-2) on Nov. 30 in Paradise, NV. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

UNLV is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-110).

The Nevada vs. UNLV Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

Bet now on UNLV vs Nevada & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Nevada vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Nevada+17.5 -11055.5 -110+600
UNLV -17.5 -11055.5 -110-900

Nevada vs UNLV Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UNLV will win this game with 89.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nevada and UNLV, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Nevada vs UNLV Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UNLV will cover the spread with 67.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on UNLV vs Nevada and all games with BetMGM


  • Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Nevada have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • UNLV have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Nevada players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nevada Player Prop Bets Today

  • Brendon Lewis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Brendon Lewis has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UNLV players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UNLV Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Ricky White III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Jai’Den Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 62% ROI)

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.55 Units / 4.17% ROI).

  • Nevada is 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -32.42% ROI
  • Nevada is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Nevada is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).

  • UNLV is 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 16.34% ROI
  • UNLV is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • UNLV is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

Nevada is winless (0-2) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .684

Nevada is winless (0-7) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .458

Nevada is 2-17 (.105) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Nevada is 5-15 (.250) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .619

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

UNLV is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .564

UNLV is 14-5 (.737) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

UNLV is 7-2 (.778) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .591

UNLV is 12-5 (.706) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 34th-best in FBS; Average: .598

Matchup Notes for Nevada vs. UNLV

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 645 attempts since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV has 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.

UNLV has 145 receptions in 11 games (just 13.2 per game) this season — 8th-worst among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed just 16.3 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 4,574 passing yards in 24 games (just 190.6 YPG) since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. UNLV’s defense has allowed 249.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s RBs has averaged just 6.3 yards after the catch this season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. UNLV’s defense has allowed just 6.5 RAC to RBs this season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s TEs have just 8.7 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among FBS TEs. UNLV’s defense has allowed 244.2 receiving yards per game this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 4,574 passing yards in 24 games (just 190.6 YPG) since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. UNLV’s defense has allowed 249.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada RBs have averaged just 3.2 Yards per Carry (345 yards/107 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Nevada Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 31.3 receptions (188 Rec/6 TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.5

Nevada RBs averaged just 3.3 Yards per Carry (756 yards/231 carries) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Nevada RBs have averaged 4.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,429 yards / 567 touches) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 645 attempts since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV has 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.

UNLV WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

UNLV RBs have rushed for 6 TDs on 56 carries (9.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

UNLV Skill Players have averaged 13.7 yards per reception (1,991 yards/145 catches) this season– T-17th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Nevada Wolf Pack Defensive Stats & Trends

Nevada has allowed 27 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Nevada has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (13/326) this season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Nevada has tackled opponents for a loss on just 104 of 877 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Nevada did not sack opposing QBs on any of 3 pass attempts last week– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Nevada has averaged 1.1 sacks per game this season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 2.1

UNLV Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV defense has allowed 104 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most in FBS

UNLV allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 398 attempts (5%) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

UNLV allowed passes of 20+ yards on 67 of 398 attempts (17%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

UNLV allowed 67 receptions for 20+ yards in the 2023 season– most in FBS

UNLV has 16 interceptions this season– 3rd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.