Nevada vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

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Southern California quarterback Caleb Williams smiles after USC defeated Notre Dame 38-27 an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in Los Angeles.
(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2023, 1:30 PM
  • USC is a -38.5 point favorite vs Nevada
  • Total (Over/Under): 66.5 points
  • Watch the game on Pac-12 Network

The Nevada Wolf Pack visit Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on the USC Trojans on Sep. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm EDT in Los Angeles.

is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at ().

The Nevada vs. USC Over/Under is total points.

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Nevada vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Nevada
USC

Nevada vs USC Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Nevada vs USC Spread Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Nevada will cover the spread with 57.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Nevada and USC, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best USC Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for USC players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Caleb Williams has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Mario Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Caleb Williams has hit the Passing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Austin Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Caleb Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+2.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Tahj Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.50 Units / 29% ROI)

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Nevada went 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -80.19% ROI
  • Nevada went 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 5.43% ROI
  • Nevada went 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.45 Units / -13.24% ROI

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • USC went 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • USC went 1-0 when betting the Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • USC went 0-1 when betting the Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. USC

There are no Keys to the Game notes available for this game

Matchup Notes for Nevada vs. USC

USC’s WRs gained 3,878 yards on 263 receptions (14.7 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 27th-best among FBS WRs. Nevada’s defense allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

USC’s WRs gained 3,878 yards on 263 receptions (14.7 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 27th-best among FBS WRs. San Jose State’s defense allowed 14.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs in the 2022 season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

USC’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 14.2% of 514 attempts in the 2022 season — tied for 13th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.5% of attempts in the 2022 season — 20th-best among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s offense threw for 2,144 passing yards in 11 games (just 194.9 YPG) in the 2022 season — 25th-worst among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 283.0 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s QBs threw for 2,334 passing yards in 11 games (just 212.2 YPG) in the 2022 season — tied for 29th-worst among FBS teams. USC’s defense allowed 283.0 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada had just 195.5 receiving yards per game in the 2022 season — 30th-worst among FBS skill players. USC’s defense allowed 264.1 receiving yards per game in the 2022 season — fifth-worst among Pac-12 defenses.

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

#6 USC WRs had 40 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

#6 USC WRs had 67 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 2022 season– most among Power 5 Teams

#6 USC QBs had 13 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go in the 2022 season– tied for most among FBS Teams

#6 USC Skill Players caught 31 touchdown passes in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– most among FBS Teams

#6 USC WRs caught 22 touchdown passes in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 4th-most among FBS Teams

Nevada Wolf Pack Defensive Stats & Trends

Nevada has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (67/753) since the 2021 season– tied for 19th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Nevada tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 27 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Nevada has allowed a Completion Pct of 58% (37 completions/64 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for 30th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Nevada allowed a Completion Pct of 75% (9 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– tied for 22nd-worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Nevada has allowed a Completion Pct of 58% (64 completions/110 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– tied for 28th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.