New Mexico vs Air Force Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

min read
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:30 PM
  • Air Force (6-3) are -21.5 point favorites vs New Mexico (2-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The New Mexico Lobos (2-9) visit Falcon Stadium to take on the Air Force Falcons (8-3) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST in U.S. Air Force Academy.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for New Mexico vs. Air Force is total points.

Bet now on Air Force vs New Mexico & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

New Mexico vs. Air Force Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
New Mexico
Air Force

New Mexico vs Air Force Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 77.4% confidence.

New Mexico vs Air Force Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico will cover the spread with 65.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico and Air Force, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • New Mexico has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.85 Units / 71% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+7.45 Units / 103% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.35 Units / 86% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.69 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.30 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+4.35 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)

New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • New Mexico is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -65.35% ROI
  • New Mexico is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • New Mexico is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Air Force is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -17.9% ROI
  • Air Force is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.08% ROI
  • Air Force is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.65 Units / 6.6% ROI

New Mexico: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

New Mexico is winless (0-7) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .399

New Mexico is winless (0-8) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .387

New Mexico is 1-12 (.077) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .423

New Mexico is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards — tied for 14th-worst in FBS; Average: .395

Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico

Air Force is 9-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble — tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .507

Matchup Notes for New Mexico vs. Air Force

Air Force has gained 726 yards on 32 receptions (22.7 YPR) this season — second-best among FBS skill players. New Mexico’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.

Air Force’s WRs has gained 668 yards on 26 receptions (25.7 YPR) this season — best among FBS WRs. New Mexico’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.

Air Force’s WRs have just 74.2 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among FBS WRs. New Mexico’s defense has allowed just 161.1 receiving yards per game this season — third-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 2,283 passing yards in 20 games (just 114.2 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 192.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 2,283 passing yards in 20 games (just 114.2 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 192.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS defenses.

New Mexico’s QBs has thrown for 2,686 passing yards in 20 games (just 134.3 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among FBS teams. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 192.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS defenses.

New Mexico Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 2,283 passing yards in 20 games (just 114.2 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 192.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 2,283 passing yards in 20 games (just 114.2 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 192.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS defenses.

New Mexico Skill Players have averaged just 3.7 yards per reception (77 yards/21 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

New Mexico RBs have averaged just 2.6 Yards per Carry (87 yards/34 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

New Mexico Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 31.7 receptions (95 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 3.7 receptions per game (81/22) since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

Air Force Skill Players have been targeted 7.5 times per game (166/22) since last season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.9

Air Force Skill Players have averaged 23.4 yards per reception (1,893 yards/81 catches) since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Air Force WRs have averaged 23.1 yards per reception (231 yards/10 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

Air Force Skill Players have averaged 26.4 yards per reception (369 yards/14 catches) with over 10 yards to go since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

New Mexico Lobos Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 63 of 739 carries (9%) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 13%

New Mexico has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 19 of 275 carries (7%) this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 13%

New Mexico has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 63 of 739 carries (9%) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 13%

New Mexico has allowed a passer rating of just 114.9 (227.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 135.4

New Mexico has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 3 of 42 carries (7%) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 17%

Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends

Air Force has allowed 30.6 carries per game (673 carries / 22 games) since last season– tied for 2nd lowest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 37.5

Air Force’s opponents has attempted just 21.3 passes per game this season– lowest in FBS; Average: 31.8

Air Force has allowed 192.6 Passing Yards per game (4,237/22) since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 244.2

Air Force has allowed 159.0 Passing Yards per game (1,431/9) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 242.4

Air Force has allowed 276.1 yards from scrimmage per game this season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 385.1


Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Air Force vs New Mexico and all NCAAF games with BetMGM

College Football Betting at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.