New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:05 AM
  • Liberty (8-3) are -23.5 point favorites vs New Mexico State (4-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 51 points

The New Mexico State Aggies (4-6) visit Williams Stadium to take on the Liberty Flames (8-3) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Lynchburg.

Liberty are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-110).

The New Mexico State vs. Liberty Over/Under is 51 total points.

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New Mexico State vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
New Mexico State+23.5 -11051 -110+
Liberty -23.5 -11051 -110+

New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 77.6% confidence.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico State will cover the spread with 72.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico State and Liberty, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • New Mexico State have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.94 Units / 42% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 16 games (+5.46 Units / 28% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.14 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+2.15 Units / 5% ROI)

New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico State has gone 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • New Mexico State is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -10.23% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Liberty has gone 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.55 Units / -12.92% ROI).

  • Liberty is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 3.08% ROI
  • Liberty is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • Liberty is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty

New Mexico State is winless (0-10) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .448

New Mexico State is 1-14 (.067) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .425

New Mexico State is 1-14 (.067) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season– tied for 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .398

New Mexico State is winless (0-11) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .437

Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State

Liberty is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 6th-best in FBS; Average: .553

Liberty is 10-2 (.833) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– tied for 6th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Liberty is 12-2 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2021 season– tied for 15th-best in FBS; Average: .619

Liberty is 7-2 (.778) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .497

New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State RBs have averaged just 3.1 Yards per Carry (298 yards/97 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

New Mexico State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– tied for 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico State RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 57 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations since last season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 23.9

New Mexico State Skill Players have averaged just 9.9 receptions per game (79/8) — 4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

New Mexico State RBs have averaged 3.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (413 yards / 111 touches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends

Liberty WRs have 24 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Liberty QBs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Liberty Skill Players have 29 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Liberty have been sacked on 12% of pass attempts (84/687) since last season– tied for 5th worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

Liberty WRs have 17 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 84 of 575 attempts (15%) since the 2021 season– tied for 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 10%

New Mexico State has allowed 201.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs since last season– 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 153.0

New Mexico State has allowed just 102.4 receiving yards per game (819/8) to WRs — 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 164.6

New Mexico State has intercepted 2 of 21 attempts (10.5 pass attempts per int.) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 36.4

New Mexico State has intercepted 2 of 21 attempts (10.5 pass attempts per int.) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 36.3

Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends

Liberty has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (35/289) this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 95 of 391 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 192 of 910 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since last season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Liberty has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (35/289) this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 7%

Liberty has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (71/643) since last season– tied for best in FBS; Average: 7%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.