New Mexico State vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

min read
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:28 AM
  • Missouri (4-6) are -28.5 point favorites vs New Mexico State (4-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points

The New Mexico State Aggies (4-6) visit Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium to take on the Missouri Tigers (5-6) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Columbia.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for New Mexico State vs. Missouri is total points.

Bet now on Missouri vs New Mexico State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

New Mexico State vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
New Mexico State
Missouri

New Mexico State vs Missouri Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 75.6% confidence.

New Mexico State vs Missouri Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico State will cover the spread with 68.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico State and Missouri, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Missouri Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Missouri players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brady Cook has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Brady Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Brady Cook has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tauskie Dove has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 15 games (+6.46 Units / 35% ROI)
  • New Mexico State have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.94 Units / 45% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+12.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Missouri have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.55 Units / 22% ROI)

New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • New Mexico State is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -10.23% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Missouri is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -6.69% ROI
  • Missouri is 2-8 when betting the Over for -6.8 Units / -61.82% ROI
  • Missouri is 8-2 when betting the Under for +5.8 Units / 52.73% ROI

New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

New Mexico State is winless (0-3) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .493

New Mexico State is winless (0-9) when throwing at least 1 interception — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .352

New Mexico State is winless (0-10) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .436

New Mexico State is winless (0-10) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .404

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State

Missouri is 2-11 (.154) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Missouri is 4-9 (.211) when rushing more than 30 times — tied for 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .454

Missouri is 2-12 (.143) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — tied for 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .416

Missouri is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays — tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .409

Matchup Notes for New Mexico State vs. Missouri

Missouri has 7 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for third-fewest among Power 5 skill players. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 8 receiving touchdowns this season — third-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Missouri’s TEs have just 6.6 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among FBS TEs. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed just 178.6 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-best among NonP5 defenses.

Missouri’s TEs have just 6.6 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among P5 TEs. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed just 178.6 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-best among NonP5 defenses.

New Mexico State’s RBs has gained 136 yards on 10 receptions (13.6 YPR) this season — third-best among FBS RBs. Missouri’s defense has allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-worst among SEC defenses.

New Mexico State has 5 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-fewest among FBS skill players. Missouri’s defense has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most among SEC defenses.

New Mexico State’s RBs has 479 rushing yards this season — second-fewest among FBS RBs. Missouri’s defense has allowed 1,182 rushing yards this season — fourth-fewest among SEC defenses.

New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State Skill Players have averaged 19.1 yards per reception (440 yards/23 catches) on 1st down this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

New Mexico State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– tied for 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico State RBs have averaged 68.4 rushing yards per game (479/7) this season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 130.8

New Mexico State RBs have averaged just 3.1 Yards per Carry (272 yards/88 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

New Mexico State Skill Players have caught just 72 of 150 passes (48% Reception Pct) this season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 64%

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.3 receptions (326 Rec/14 TDs) since last season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

Missouri Skill Players have no touchdowns on 23 receptions in close and late situations this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.1

Missouri WRs have no touchdowns on 18 receptions in close and late situations this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.7

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.8 receptions (15 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.0

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 26.2 receptions (131 Rec/5 TDs) this season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.9

New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 80 of 544 attempts (15%) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 10%

New Mexico State has allowed just 96.6 receiving yards per game (676/7) to WRs this season– best in FBS; Average: 165.4

New Mexico State has allowed 97.6 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 176.3

New Mexico State has allowed 2.5 touchdowns per interception (5 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 9.2

New Mexico State has allowed 202.4 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 149.9

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has allowed a passer rating of 188.3 in close and late situations (38.0 Pass Attempts) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 119.8

Missouri has allowed a passer rating of 181.2 in close and late situations (93.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 125.1

Missouri has allowed a passer rating of 188.3 in close and late situations (38.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 122.6

Missouri has allowed a passer rating of 181.2 in close and late situations (93.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 125.0

Missouri has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 17 of their 289 carries (6%) this season– tied for 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 3%


Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Missouri vs New Mexico State and all NCAAF games with BetMGM

College Football Betting at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.