North Carolina vs Boston College Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 13

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Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos (1) rolls out during the second half of an NCAA college football game against UConn Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023 in Boston. (AP Photo/Mark Stockwell)
(AP Photo/Mark Stockwell)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 22, 2024, 1:17 PM
  • North Carolina is a -3 point favorite vs. Boston College
  • North Carolina vs. Boston College Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
  • TV Channel: CW

The North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) visit Alumni Stadium to take on the Boston College Eagles (5-5) on Nov. 23 in Chestnut Hill, MA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

North Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The North Carolina vs. Boston College Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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North Carolina vs. Boston College Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina-3 -11556.5 -110-155
Boston College +3 -10556.5 -110+130

North Carolina vs Boston College Prediction:

The winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Boston College, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Carolina vs Boston College Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boston College will cover the spread with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Boston College has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Boston College has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Boston College have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Boston College have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Boston College have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best North Carolina Player Prop Bets Today

  • Omarion Hampton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jacolby Criswell has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Bryson Nesbit has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kobe Paysour has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Omarion Hampton has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Boston College players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Boston College Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Lewis Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Thomas Castellanos has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Jaedn Skeete has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Thomas Castellanos has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Thomas Castellanos has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.65 Units / -51.36% ROI).

  • North Carolina is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -6.94% ROI
  • North Carolina is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
  • North Carolina is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI

Boston College Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boston College is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).

  • Boston College is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 31.87% ROI
  • Boston College is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Boston College is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Boston College

North Carolina is 8-3 (.727) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 20th-best in FBS; Average: .526

North Carolina is 4-7 (.364) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

North Carolina is 4-8 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .455

North Carolina is 2-6 (.250) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .439

Boston College: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

Boston College is 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471

Boston College is 7-2 (.778) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .614

Boston College is 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .618

Boston College is 6-9 (.400) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Boston College

Boston College has gained 1,839 yards on 141 receptions (13.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s RBs has averaged 15.7 yards after the catch this season — 2nd-best among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.7 RAC this season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

Boston College has 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 1.4 receiving touchdowns per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

North Carolina has gained 6,237 yards on 476 receptions (13.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC skill players. Boston College’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs has 55 receptions in 10 games (5.5 per game) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Boston College’s defense has allowed 20.8 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina has averaged 12.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among ACC skill players. Boston College’s defense has allowed 12.1 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina has gained 6,237 yards on 476 receptions (13.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC skill players. Boston College’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs has 55 receptions in 10 games (5.5 per game) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Boston College’s defense has allowed 20.8 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina RBs rushed for 109 yards in the 1st quarter last week– T-most among FBS Teams

North Carolina has averaged 12.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among ACC skill players. Boston College’s defense has allowed 12.1 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s WRs have just 142.3 receiving yards per game this season — T-4th-worst among ACC WRs. Boston College’s defense has allowed 248.8 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College Offensive Stats & Trends

Boston College has gained 1,839 yards on 141 receptions (13.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s RBs has averaged 15.7 yards after the catch this season — 2nd-best among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.7 RAC this season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

Boston College has 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-24th-best among FBS skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 1.4 receiving touchdowns per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Boston College has gained 1,839 yards on 141 receptions (13.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

Boston College has averaged 12.8 yards after the catch this season — 3rd-best among ACC skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 13.7 RAC this season — worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina has allowed 47.3 receiving yards per game (473/10) to RBs this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.1

North Carolina has averaged 3.4 sacks per game this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 2.1

North Carolina has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (34/302) this season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

North Carolina has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 13 of 302 attempts (4%) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

North Carolina has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 13 of 302 attempts (4%) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Boston College Eagles Defensive Stats & Trends

Boston College has sacked opposing QBs just once on 70 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

Boston College has sacked opposing QBs just once on 70 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Boston College has no interceptions and 21 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Boston College has no interceptions and 21 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

Boston College has averaged a sack every 23.9 pass attempts (668 Pass Attempts/28 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.