North Carolina vs California Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

BetMGM Betting Oct 15, 2025, 6:58 PM

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California head coach Justin Wilcox stands on the sidelines during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Stanford in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

(AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

California is a -10 point favorite vs. North Carolina
North Carolina vs. California Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

North Carolina (2-3) visit California Memorial Stadium to take on California (4-2) on Oct. 17 in Berkeley, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.

California is a betting favorite in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -10 (-105).

The North Carolina vs. California Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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North Carolina vs. California Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
North Carolina	+10 -115	47.5 -115	310
California	-10 -105	47.5 -105	-400

North Carolina vs California Prediction:

The winning team model predicts California will win this game with 78.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and California, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Carolina vs California Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts California will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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North Carolina Best Bets Today

North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
North Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.86 Units / 51% ROI)
North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.40 Units / 11% ROI)
North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.15 Units / 10% ROI)

California Best Bets Today

California has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.24 Units / 22% ROI)
California has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+0.95 Units / 1% ROI)
California has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+0.80 Units / 10% ROI)
California has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)
California have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.68 Units / 8% ROI)

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

North Carolina is 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -2.92% ROI
North Carolina is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -41.82% ROI
North Carolina is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI

California Against the Spread (ATS) Record

California iss 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).

California is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -21.65% ROI
California is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
California is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. California

California were sacked on 20% of pass attempts (19/96) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

California were sacked on 20% of pass attempts (19/96) in the 4th quarter last season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

California’s RBs has averaged just 4.4 yards after the catch this season — 5th-worst among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

California’s TEs has averaged 7.0 targets per game this season — 4th-highest among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 4.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.

California RBs fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

California: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

North Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of 82% (73 completions/89 attempts) in the 1st half this season– worst in FBS; Average: 63%

North Carolina allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 387 attempts (4%) last season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

North Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of 82% (73 completions/89 attempts) in the 1st half this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%

Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. California