North Carolina vs Clemson Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The Clemson Tigers are a -4 point favorite vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels
• North Carolina vs. Clemson Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN | DIS+

North Carolina (2-0) visit Memorial Stadium to take on Clemson (1-1) on Sep. 19 in Clemson, SC. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.

The Clemson Tigers are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -4 (-105).

The North Carolina vs. Clemson Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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North Carolina vs. Clemson Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

North Carolina vs Clemson Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Clemson will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Clemson Tigers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Carolina vs Clemson Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Clemson will cover the spread with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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North Carolina Best Bets Today

• North Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
• North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.20 Units / 61% ROI)
• North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.45 Units / 4% ROI)

Clemson Best Bets Today

• Clemson has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
• Clemson has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Clemson has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Clemson has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Clemson have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina Tar Heels is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• North Carolina is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 255% ROI
• North Carolina is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
• North Carolina is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Clemson Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Clemson Tigers is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

• Clemson is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Clemson is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Clemson is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Clemson

North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414

North Carolina was 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

North Carolina was 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Clemson: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

Clemson was undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647

Clemson was 10-2 (.833) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631

Clemson was 9-2 (.818) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 29th-best in FBS; Average: .668

Clemson was 6-3 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Clemson

Clemson’s TEs gained 510 yards on 51 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-best among ACC defenses.

Clemson’s TEs gained 510 yards on 51 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception last season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Clemson had 6 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-2nd-fewest among ACC skill players. North Carolina’s defense allowed 7 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — fewest among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 6.2% of 355 attempts last season — T-4th-worst among FBS offenses. Clemson’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.0% of attempts last season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

North Carolina’s offense threw for 2,207 passing yards in 12 games (just 183.9 YPG) last season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Clemson’s defense allowed 251.6 passing yards per game last season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs had 29 receptions in 11 games (just 2.6 per game) last season — 3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Clemson’s defense allowed 22.6 receptions per game last season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 6.2% of 355 attempts last season — T-4th-worst among FBS offenses. Clemson’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.0% of attempts last season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

North Carolina threw 0 TDs on 27 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in close and late situations last season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.8

North Carolina RBs averaged 8.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (224 yards / 28 touches) on 3rd and short last season– 6th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

North Carolina Skill Players had no touchdowns on 17 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8

North Carolina’s offense threw for 2,207 passing yards in 12 games (just 183.9 YPG) last season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Clemson’s defense allowed 251.6 passing yards per game last season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Clemson Offensive Stats & Trends

Clemson WRs averaged a touchdown every 6.0 receptions (12 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Clemson RBs averaged 8.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (277 yards / 31 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Clemson WRs averaged a touchdown every 6.0 receptions (12 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Clemson threw 6 TDs on 48 pass attempts (one TD every 8.0 Pass Attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 6th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 3.7

Clemson Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 3.8 receptions (23 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

North Carolina averaged 3.5 sacks per game last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 2.1

North Carolina allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 387 attempts (4%) last season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

North Carolina averaged 3.5 sacks per game last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.2

North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Clemson Defensive Stats & Trends

Clemson allowed a Completion Pct of just 14% (2 completions/14 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Clemson allowed a Completion Pct of just 14% (2 completions/14 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 63%

Clemson allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 30 of their 477 carries (6%) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3%

Clemson had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 36.2

Clemson allowed 9.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (296 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.3

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