- The Duke is a -3 point favorite vs. North Carolina
- The North Carolina vs. Duke Total(Over/Under): 55.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1) visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils (4-0) on Sep. 28 in Durham, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.
Duke is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The North Carolina vs. Duke Over/Under is 55.5 total points.
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North Carolina vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Carolina | +3 -115 | 55.5 -105 | +125 |
| Duke | -3 -105 | 55.5 -115 | -150 |
North Carolina vs Duke Prediction:
The winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 58.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Duke, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Carolina vs Duke Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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North Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+3.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best North Carolina Player Prop Bets Today
- Omarion Hampton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nate McCollum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Omarion Hampton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kobe Paysour has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Duke players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Duke Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jaquez Moore has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Grayson Loftis has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Grayson Loftis has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
North Carolina is 6-1 (.857) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .604
North Carolina is 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .633
North Carolina is 6-3 (.667) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .547
North Carolina is 3-5 (.375) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .507
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
Duke is 9-3 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .535
Duke is 11-5 (.688) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 23rd-best in FBS; Average: .457
Duke is 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .445
Duke is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .619
Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Duke
Duke’s RBs has 5 receptions in 4 games (just 1.2 per game) this season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Duke’s RBs has 5 receptions in 4 games (just 1.2 per game) this season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game this season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.
Duke’s RBs has rushed for 438 yards on 113 carries (just 3.9 YPC) this season — 18th-worst among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense have allowed just 3.3 YPC to RBs this season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.7% of 126 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Duke’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.8% of attempts this season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.7% of 126 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Duke’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.8% of attempts this season — T-2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s TEs have 78.2 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-best among FBS TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 132.0 receiving yards per game this season — best among ACC defenses.
North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina Skill Players had 10 receptions for 20 or more yards last week– most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina Skill Players had 10 receptions for 20 or more yards last week– most among FBS Teams
North Carolina QBs had 5 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last week– T-most among FBS Teams
North Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.7% of 126 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Duke’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.8% of attempts this season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina QBs had 10 completions for 20 or more yards last week– most among FBS Teams
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
Duke TEs have averaged 39.0 yards per reception (78 yards/2 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3
Duke WRs have been targeted 27 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams
Duke WRs have been targeted 17 times in short yardage situations this season– 4th-most among FBS Teams
Duke TEs have caught just 1 of 6 passes (17% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Duke’s RBs has 5 receptions in 4 games (just 1.2 per game) this season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina allowed 5 TD passes last week– T-most in FBS
North Carolina allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– T-most in FBS
North Carolina has one interception and 7 TD passes allowed this season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.2
North Carolina has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 18 of 107 attempts (17%) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
North Carolina allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– most among Power Conference Teams
Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends
Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 12 rushing attempts (42% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 11%.
Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 12 rushing attempts (42% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.
Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 43 of 150 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 17%.
Duke opponents has averaged 6.4 Passing Attempts per TD (58 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.9
Duke opponents has averaged 41.7 Passing Attempts per TD (542 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 20.6
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