North Carolina vs Miami (FL) Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 06, 2022, 2:35 PM
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  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The North Carolina Tar Heels (6-1) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (3-3) on Oct. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT in Miami Gardens.

are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) is total points.

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North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina
Miami (FL)

North Carolina vs Miami (FL) Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Miami will win this game with 55% confidence.

North Carolina vs Miami (FL) Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Miami will cover the spread with 52% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Miami (FL), plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best North Carolina Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Drake Maye has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Josh Downs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 16 games (+2.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Miami (FL) has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • North Carolina is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • North Carolina is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • North Carolina is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Miami (FL) Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Miami (FL) has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Miami (FL) is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Miami (FL) is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Miami (FL) is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Miami (FL)

North Carolina is 9-3 (.643) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .429

Miami (FL): Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

Miami (FL) is 10-3 (.714) when passing for more than 300 yards since the 2020 season– tied for 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .439

Miami (FL) is winless (0-2) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .382

Miami (FL) is 10-4 (.588) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .410

Miami (FL) is 9-3 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2020 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .499

Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Miami (FL)

North Carolina’s receiving corps has gained 3,013 yards on 197 receptions (15.3 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best among Power 5 WR corps. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 11.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s tight end unit has 22 receptions in 3 games (7.3 per game) this season — second-best among P5 TE corps. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 13.3 receptions per game this season — third-best among P5 defenses.

North Carolina’s tight end unit has 22 receptions in 3 games (7.3 per game) this season — second-best among P5 TE corps. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 13.3 receptions per game this season — best among ACC defenses.

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina TEs have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

North Carolina RBs have averaged 16.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (193 yards / 12 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.4

North Carolina’s receiving corps has gained 3,013 yards on 197 receptions (15.3 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best among Power 5 WR corps. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 11.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among ACC defenses.

North Carolina RBs have averaged 12.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (84 yards / 7 touches) on 3rd down this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

North Carolina’s tight end unit has 22 receptions in 3 games (7.3 per game) this season — second-best among P5 TE corps. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 13.3 receptions per game this season — third-best among P5 defenses.

Miami (FL) Offensive Stats & Trends

Miami (FL) WRs have averaged just 8.6 yards per reception (343 yards/40 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.5

Miami (FL) Skill Players have averaged just 6.5 yards per reception (39 yards/6 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.4

Miami (FL) Skill Players have been targeted 9 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– tied for fewest among Power 5 Teams

Miami (FL) Skill Players have been targeted 17.3 times per game (260/15) in the 2nd half since last season– 4th highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.9

Miami (FL) Skill Players have been targeted 18 times on 3rd down this season– tied for 4th fewest among Power 5 Teams

North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 12 of 132 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 17%.

North Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of 86% (6 completions/7 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 51%

North Carolina has forced 7 fumbles on 635 carries (90.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 41.7

North Carolina has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 62 of 479 attempts (13%) since last season– tied for 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%

North Carolina opponents has averaged just 13.3 Passing Attempts per TD (479 Pass Attempts/36 Passing TDs) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 21.8

Miami (FL) Hurricanes Defensive Stats & Trends

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 0% (0 completions/9 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 51%

Miami (FL) has allowed a passer rating of just -22.2 in the Red Zone (9.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 164.7

Miami (FL) has allowed opponents to catch just 0 of 9 passes (0% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 52%

Miami (FL) has allowed 9.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (348 yards / 38 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.0

Miami (FL) has allowed a passer rating of just -22.2 in the Red Zone (9.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 148.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.