North Carolina State vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The Vanderbilt Commodores are a -3.5 point favorite vs. the North Carolina State Wolfpack
• North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
• TV Channel: SECN

North Carolina State (1-1) visit FirstBank Stadium to take on Vanderbilt (2-0) on Sep. 19 in Nashville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45 pm.

The Vanderbilt Commodores are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

North Carolina State vs Vanderbilt Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Vanderbilt will win this game with 56.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the Vanderbilt Commodores, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Carolina State vs Vanderbilt Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Vanderbilt will cover the spread with 54.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Vanderbilt Commodores vs North Carolina State Wolfpack and all games with BetMGM

North Carolina State Best Bets Today

• NC State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• NC State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.53 Units / 11% ROI)
• NC State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.32 Units / 10% ROI)

Vanderbilt Best Bets Today

• Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.45 Units / 6% ROI)
• Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Vanderbilt has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina State Wolfpack is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• North Carolina State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• North Carolina State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• North Carolina State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt Commodores is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

• Vanderbilt is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.65% ROI
• Vanderbilt is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Vanderbilt is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

North Carolina State was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

North Carolina State was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

North Carolina State was 2-6 (.250) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .442

North Carolina State was 2-7 (.222) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State

Vanderbilt was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645

Vanderbilt was 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Vanderbilt was 1-8 (.111) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .533

Vanderbilt was 2-9 (.182) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

Matchup Notes for North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s offense threw for 3,738 passing yards in 13 games (287.5 YPG) last season — 10th-best among FBS offenses. NC State’s defense allowed 273.2 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s QBs threw for 3,738 passing yards in 13 games (287.5 YPG) last season — 10th-best among FBS teams. NC State’s defense allowed 273.2 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

Vanderbilt’s TEs had 81 receptions in 13 games (6.2 per game) last season — 3rd-best among FBS TEs. NC State’s defense allowed 22.7 receptions per game last season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.

NC State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.5% of 410 attempts last season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts last season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

NC State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.5% of 410 attempts last season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts last season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.

NC State’s RBs averaged just 6.1 yards after the catch last season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed just 10.5 RAC last season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.

North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State RBs averaged 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (816 yards / 94 touches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

NC State RBs averaged 14.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (266 yards / 18 touches) on 1st down last week– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

NC State rushed for 8 TDs last week– most among FBS Offenses

North Carolina State RBs had 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

NC State RBs averaged 11.8 Yards per Carry (341 yards/29 carries) last week– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt’s offense threw for 3,738 passing yards in 13 games (287.5 YPG) last season — 10th-best among FBS offenses. NC State’s defense allowed 273.2 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s QBs threw for 3,738 passing yards in 13 games (287.5 YPG) last season — 10th-best among FBS teams. NC State’s defense allowed 273.2 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

Vanderbilt’s TEs had 81 receptions in 13 games (6.2 per game) last season — 3rd-best among FBS TEs. NC State’s defense allowed 22.7 receptions per game last season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt TEs averaged 6.2 receptions per game (81/13) last season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 3.8

Vanderbilt TEs picked up first downs on 17 receptions on 3rd down last season– most among SEC Teams

North Carolina State Defensive Stats & Trends

NC State allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (8 completions/27 attempts) last week– best in FBS; Average: 60%

NC State allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (8 completions/27 attempts) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%

North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 25 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 25 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

NC State allowed opponents to catch just 8 of 23 passes (35% Reception Pct) last week– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Vanderbilt Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt allowed 15 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– most in the SEC

Vanderbilt allowed passes of 40+ yards on 2 of 32 attempts (6%) last week– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Vanderbilt allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 52 attempts (19%) on 3rd and long last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 9%

Vanderbilt sacked opposing QBs just once on 55 pass attempts in the Red Zone last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 16.6

Vanderbilt allowed 15 TD passes in the Red Zone last season– most in the SEC

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