North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 04, 2022, 9:15 AM
  • (3-6) are point favorites vs (3-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
  • Watch the game on ACC Network

The North Carolina Tar Heels (8-1) visit Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (3-6) on Nov. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Charlottesville.

are betting favorites in Week 10, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for North Carolina vs. Virginia is total points.

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North Carolina vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 10

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina
Virginia

North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction for Week 10

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts predicted-winning-team will win this game with confidence-percentage confidence.

North Carolina vs Virginia Spread Prediction for Week 10

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts spread-winning-team will cover the spread with spread-confidence confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best North Carolina Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player high – away 

Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player  high – home
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • North Carolina is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • North Carolina is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • North Carolina is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Virginia is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Virginia is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Virginia is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

#22 North Carolina is 7-2 (.700) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — tied for 15th-best in FBS; Average: .437

#22 North Carolina is 8-2 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass — tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .626

North Carolina is 9-3 (.643) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .431

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .404

Virginia is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 12th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

Virginia is 3-7 (.273) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties — 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .522

Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Virginia

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 6,754 passing yards in 21 games (321.6 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 272.9 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 7,120 passing yards in 21 games (339.0 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 272.9 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has gained 3,925 yards on 254 receptions (15.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among Power 5 WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs has 14 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for third-most among P5 TEs. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 38 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fifth-most among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s QBs has 1,393 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fifth-most among FBS teams. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 3,809 rushing yards since the 2021 season — second-most among ACC defenses.

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

#15 North Carolina RBs have averaged 15.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (203 yards / 13 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#15 North Carolina WRs have averaged 20.7 yards per reception (186 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

#15 North Carolina TEs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

#15 North Carolina QBs have averaged 38.7 rushing yards per game (774/20) in the 2nd half since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9

#15 North Carolina TEs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 6,754 passing yards in 21 games (321.6 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 272.9 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 7,120 passing yards in 21 games (339.0 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 272.9 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia WRs have averaged a touchdown every 30.2 receptions (121 Rec/4 TDs) this season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Virginia RBs have averaged 12.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (245 yards / 19 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

Virginia RBs have been targeted 8.1 times per game (170/21) since last season– 4th highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends

#15 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 39 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

#15 North Carolina has forced 9 fumbles on 770 carries (85.6 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 41.4

#15 North Carolina has forced 9 fumbles on 770 carries (85.6 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.9

#15 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 39 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

#15 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 26 of 267 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Virginia has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Power 5 Teams

Virginia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (37 completions/92 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 54%

Virginia has tackled opponents for a loss on just 98 of 826 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Virginia has averaged a sack every 4.3 pass attempts (26 Pass Attempts/6 Sacks) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.