- The Texas State Bobcats are a -3 point favorite vs. the North Texas Mean Green
- North Texas vs. Texas State Total (Over/Under): 63.5 points
- TV Channel: USA
North Texas (1-1) visit UFCU Stadium to take on Texas State (0-2) on Sep. 19 in San Marcos, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Texas State Bobcats are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -3 (-108).
The North Texas vs. Texas State Over/Under is 63.5 total points.
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North Texas vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Texas | +3 -110 | 63.5 -110 | +125 |
| Texas State | -3 -108 | 63.5 -108 | -145 |
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 56.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the North Texas Mean Green and the Texas State Bobcats, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Texas vs Texas State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 55.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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North Texas Best Bets Today
- North Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- North Texas have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 44% ROI)
Texas State Best Bets Today
- Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.29 Units / 18% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.72 Units / 9% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+0.40 Units / 2% ROI)
North Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Texas Mean Green is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 93.02% ROI).
- North Texas is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 120% ROI
- North Texas is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- North Texas is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State Bobcats is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.18 Units / -100% ROI).
- Texas State is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
- Texas State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI
- Texas State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI
North Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
North Texas was 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .420
North Texas is 15-5 (.750) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .625
North Texas is 10-2 (.833) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .670
North Texas is 19-7 (.731) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .639
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. North Texas
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Texas State was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .668
Matchup Notes for North Texas vs. Texas State
Texas State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 358 attempts last season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Texas State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 358 attempts last season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts last season — T-5th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State gained 3,261 yards on 253 receptions (12.9 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 skill players. North Texas’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
North Texas’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 14.4% of 472 attempts last season — T-8th-best among FBS offenses. Texas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 9.0% of attempts last season — 4th-worst among Pac-12 defenses.
North Texas’s offense threw for 4,452 passing yards in 14 games (318.0 YPG) last season — 2nd-best among FBS offenses. Texas State’s defense allowed 218.1 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Pac-12 defenses.
North Texas’s RBs averaged 10.2 yards after the catch last season — T-16th-best among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense allowed just 9.8 RAC last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 defenses.
North Texas Offensive Stats & Trends
North Texas RBs rushed for 42 TDs last season– most among FBS Teams
North Texas’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 14.4% of 472 attempts last season — T-8th-best among FBS offenses. Texas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 9.0% of attempts last season — 4th-worst among Pac-12 defenses.
North Texas QBs had 38 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
North Texas’s offense threw for 4,452 passing yards in 14 games (318.0 YPG) last season — 2nd-best among FBS offenses. Texas State’s defense allowed 218.1 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Pac-12 defenses.
North Texas’s RBs averaged 10.2 yards after the catch last season — T-16th-best among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense allowed just 9.8 RAC last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 defenses.
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State threw 8 TDs and no interceptions in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.6
Texas State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 358 attempts last season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Texas State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 358 attempts last season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts last season — T-5th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State gained 3,261 yards on 253 receptions (12.9 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 skill players. North Texas’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs gained 2,572 yards on 173 receptions (14.9 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 WRs. North Texas’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
North Texas Defensive Stats & Trends
North Texas forced 4 fumbles on 544 carries (136.0 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4
North Texas forced 4 fumbles on 544 carries (136.0 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7
North Texas allowed 3,020 rushing yards last season– most in FBS
North Texas allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 25 of 387 attempts (7%) last season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
North Texas has at least one sack in each of their last 27 games — the Missouri Tigers have the longest active streak at 35.
Texas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State allowed a Completion Pct of 87% (53 completions/61 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go last season– worst in FBS; Average: 61%
Texas State allowed a Completion Pct of 87% (53 completions/61 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Texas State allowed 17 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Texas State allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (3 completions/9 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
Texas State allowed 17 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-most in FBS
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