North Texas vs Tulsa Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

• The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a -2.5 point favorite vs. the North Texas Mean Green
• North Texas vs. Tulsa Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN

North Texas (2-2) visit Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium to take on Tulsa (3-1) on Oct. 1 in Tulsa, OK. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 pm.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The North Texas vs. Tulsa Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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North Texas vs. Tulsa Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

North Texas vs Tulsa Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Tulsa will win this game with 52.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the North Texas Mean Green and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Texas vs Tulsa Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Tulsa will cover the spread with 51.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs North Texas Mean Green and all games with BetMGM

North Texas Best Bets Today

• North Texas has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.82 Units / 59% ROI)
• North Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 49% ROI)
• North Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• North Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• North Texas has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 7% ROI)

Tulsa Best Bets Today

• Tulsa has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+7.20 Units / 2% ROI)
• Tulsa has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• Tulsa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Tulsa have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Tulsa have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)

North Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Texas Mean Green is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI).

• North Texas is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 10% ROI
• North Texas is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
• North Texas is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Tulsa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tulsa Golden Hurricane is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Tulsa is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 60.29% ROI
• Tulsa is 0-4 when betting the Over for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI
• Tulsa is 4-0 when betting the Under for +4 Units / 91.95% ROI

North Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Tulsa

North Texas was 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .420

North Texas is 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .622

North Texas is 9-3 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .385

North Texas is 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2024 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .564

Tulsa: Keys to the Game vs. North Texas

Tulsa was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Tulsa was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

Tulsa was 1-7 (.125) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Tulsa was 1-7 (.125) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-8th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .372

Matchup Notes for North Texas vs. Tulsa

Tulsa’s WRs has averaged just 12.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS WRs. North Texas’s defense has allowed 13.5 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulsa’s WRs had just 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-14th-worst among FBS WRs. North Texas’s defense allowed just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Tulsa’s RBs has 127 receptions in 28 games (4.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS RBs. North Texas’s defense has allowed just 17.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

North Texas’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 14.4% of 472 attempts last season — T-8th-best among FBS offenses. Tulsa’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.0% of attempts last season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.

North Texas has gained 10,065 yards on 780 receptions (12.9 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Texas had 2.4 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-5th-best among FBS skill players. Tulsa’s defense allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

North Texas WRs had 18 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

North Texas RBs rushed for 4 TDs last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

North Texas QBs had 38 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

North Texas QBs had 6 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last week– T-most among FBS Teams

North Texas RBs have rushed for 42 TDs in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams

Tulsa Offensive Stats & Trends

Tulsa WRs had no touchdowns on 14 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.4

Tulsa RBs have averaged 8.7 Yards per Carry (200 yards/23 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 8th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Tulsa Skill Players had no touchdowns on 20 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Tulsa threw 0 TDs on 32 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 17.8

Tulsa RBs were targeted 32 times on 3rd down last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

North Texas Defensive Stats & Trends

North Texas forced 4 fumbles on 544 carries (136.0 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4

North Texas allowed 231.2 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 141.6

North Texas has allowed first downs on 100% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 29%

North Texas has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (2 completions/2 attempts) in close and late situations this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%

North Texas has allowed less than 300 passing yards in each of their last 17 games — the Indiana Hoosiers have the longest active streak at 32.

Tulsa Defensive Stats & Trends

Tulsa allowed 38 TD passes last season– most in FBS

Tulsa allowed 38 TD passes last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Tulsa has sacked opponents 4 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Tulsa did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Tulsa allowed 316.0 Passing Yards per game (3,792/12) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 219.2

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