- Duke is a -18.5 point favorite vs. Northwestern
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- Watch the game on ACC Network
The Northwestern Wildcats visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in Durham.
Duke is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -17 (-110).
The Northwestern vs. Duke Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Northwestern vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 3
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Northwestern | +17 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +625 |
| Duke | -17 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -1000 |
Northwestern vs Duke Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 88.8% confidence.
Northwestern vs Duke Spread Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Northwestern will cover the spread with 57.3% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Northwestern and Duke, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Northwestern Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Northwestern has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Northwestern has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 games (+5.10 Units / 85% ROI)
- Northwestern has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Northwestern has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- Northwestern has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+7.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Duke have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Northwestern Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Northwestern players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Hilinski has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Duke Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Duke players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jalon Calhoun has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Riley Leonard has hit the Passing Yards Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Riley Leonard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 10 games (+1.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Northwestern Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Northwestern is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Northwestern is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Northwestern is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Northwestern is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Duke is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 355% ROI
- Duke is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Duke is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Northwestern: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
Northwestern is 1-17 (.056) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .437
Northwestern is winless (0-10) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .444
Northwestern is 3-14 (.158) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .520
Northwestern is 1-17 (.056) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .449
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. Northwestern
Duke is 6-1 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– tied for 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .359
Duke is undefeated (7-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2022 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .630
Duke is 4-2 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .366
Duke is 5-2 (.714) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– tied for 7th-best in FBS; Average: .398
Matchup Notes for Northwestern vs. Duke
Duke’s WRs has averaged just 9.1 yards after the catch this season — fifth-worst among Power 5 WRs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 7.7 RAC this season — third-best among Big Ten defenses.
Duke’s WRs has averaged just 9.1 yards after the catch this season — fifth-worst among Power 5 WRs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 7.8 RAC to WRs this season — 11th-best among FBS defenses.
Duke’s WRs has averaged just 9.1 yards after the catch this season — worst among ACC WRs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 7.8 RAC to WRs this season — 11th-best among FBS defenses.
Northwestern has gained 2,883 yards on 278 receptions (just 10.4 YPR) since the 2022 season — 13th-worst among FBS skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed just 11.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-best among ACC defenses.
Northwestern’s WRs has gained 191 yards on 19 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) this season — worst among Big Ten WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 8.2 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among ACC defenses.
Northwestern has gained 389 yards on 36 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) this season — fourth-worst among Big Ten skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed just 8.2 Yards Per Reception this season — ninth-best among FBS defenses.
Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends
Northwestern Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 27.0 receptions (189 Rec/7 TDs) in the 2022 season– 5th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8
Northwestern WRs have averaged a touchdown every 26.2 receptions (288 Rec/11 TDs) since the 2021 season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8
Northwestern WRs averaged a touchdown every 33.7 receptions (101 Rec/3 TDs) in the 2022 season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.0
Northwestern has gained 2,883 yards on 278 receptions (just 10.4 YPR) since the 2022 season — 13th-worst among FBS skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed just 11.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-best among ACC defenses.
Northwestern WRs averaged a touchdown every 33.7 receptions (101 Rec/3 TDs) in the 2022 season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
#21 Duke Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 26.7 receptions (80 Rec/3 TDs) since the 2021 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.5
#21 Duke TEs have no touchdowns on 7 receptions since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9.2
#21 Duke TEs have no touchdowns on 7 receptions since the 2021 season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9.6
#21 Duke Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 26.7 receptions (80 Rec/3 TDs) since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.1
#21 Duke Kickers have averaged 53.2 yards per kickoff (5,427 yards/102 kickoffs) since last season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 61.5
Northwestern Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Northwestern has tackled opponents for a loss on just 128 of 1,057 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2021 season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.
Northwestern’s opponents attempted just 25.0 passes per game in the 2022 season– lowest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 32.4
Northwestern allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (14 completions/35 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go in the 2022 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 58%
Northwestern allowed a Completion Pct of just 34% (11 completions/32 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: 54%
Northwestern allowed a Completion Pct of just 34% (11 completions/32 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%
Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends
#21 Duke has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 351 carries (50.1 Carries Per TD) since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 23.9
#21 Duke has forced 40 fumbles since the 2021 season– 2nd most in FBS
#21 Duke has allowed 4.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (701 yards / 152 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.6
#21 Duke has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 8 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.
#21 Duke has allowed 299.4 Passing Yards per game (6,886/23) since the 2021 season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 242.0
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