Northwestern vs Penn St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 10, 2025, 11:23 AM

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James Franklin has been head coach of Penn State football since January 2014.

(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Penn St is a -21.5 point favorite vs. Northwestern
Northwestern vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

Northwestern (3-2) visit West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium to take on Penn State (3-2) on Oct. 11 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Penn St is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-115).

The Northwestern vs. Penn State Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Northwestern vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Northwestern	+21.5 -105	47.5 -115	1000
Penn State	-21.5 -115	47.5 -105	-2000

Northwestern vs Penn State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 76.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Northwestern and Penn St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Northwestern vs Penn State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Northwestern will cover the spread with 54.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Northwestern Best Bets Today

Northwestern have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.81 Units / 28% ROI)
Northwestern have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Northwestern has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Northwestern has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Northwestern has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.50 Units / 10% ROI)

Penn State Best Bets Today

Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.22 Units / 69% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.00 Units / 1% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)

Northwestern Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Northwestern is 3-2 against the spread this college football season (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Northwestern is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 1.7% ROI
Northwestern is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Northwestern is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn St iss 0-5 against the spread this college football season (-5.5 Units / -100% ROI).

Penn State is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.85 Units / -100% ROI
Penn State is 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Penn State is 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

Northwestern: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State has allowed 4 TDs in close and late situations this season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Penn State’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 25% of PATs this season– T-5th-highest in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Northwestern

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .429

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468

Penn State was 10-2 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Penn State was 12-2 (.857) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659

Matchup Notes for Northwestern vs. Penn State