Northwestern vs Purdue Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:40 AM
  • Purdue (6-4) are -18.5 point favorites vs Northwestern (1-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points

The Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) visit Ross-Ade Stadium to take on the Purdue Boilermakers (7-4) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in West Lafayette.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Northwestern vs. Purdue is total points.

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Northwestern vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Northwestern
Purdue

Northwestern vs Purdue Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Purdue will win this game with 72.8% confidence.

Northwestern vs Purdue Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Purdue will cover the spread with 71.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Northwestern and Purdue, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Northwestern Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Northwestern players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Evan Hull has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Ryan Hilinski has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Best Purdue Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Purdue players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aidan O’Connell has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Payne Durham has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • King Doerue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+7.10 Units / 177% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+13.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.18 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+8.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Purdue have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Northwestern Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Northwestern has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Northwestern is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -59.4% ROI
  • Northwestern is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Northwestern is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Purdue is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 16.67% ROI
  • Purdue is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
  • Purdue is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Northwestern: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Northwestern is 1-11 (.067) when rushing more than 30 times — 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .454

Northwestern is winless (0-15) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .424

Northwestern is winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .436

Northwestern is 1-10 (.091) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Northwestern

Purdue is 11-7 (.550) when passing for more than 200 yards — 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .409

Purdue is 8-3 (.615) when rushing more than 30 times — 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .454

Purdue is 9-5 (.562) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game — 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .409

Purdue is 11-1 (.917) when intercepting at least 1 pass — tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .617

Matchup Notes for Northwestern vs. Purdue

Purdue’s TEs has 52 receptions in 9 games (5.8 per game) this season — fourth-best among P5 TEs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 15.6 receptions per game this season — fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Purdue’s offense has thrown for 7,364 passing yards in 22 games (334.7 YPG) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 211.0 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s TEs has 52 receptions in 9 games (5.8 per game) this season — fourth-best among P5 TEs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 15.6 receptions per game this season — third-best among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern’s WRs have just 113.1 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among Power 5 WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 233.9 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern has 7 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for third-fewest among Power 5 skill players. Purdue’s defense has allowed 17 receiving touchdowns this season — third-most among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern’s RBs has been targeted 81 times this season — fourth-most among FBS RBs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 2,105 receiving yards this season — fourth-most among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern RBs have been targeted 12 times in short yardage situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Northwestern RBs have been targeted 10.1 times per game (81/8) this season– 2nd highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

Northwestern WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.9 receptions (215 Rec/9 TDs) since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

Northwestern TEs have no touchdowns on 19 receptions this season– tied for 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9.8

Northwestern RBs have been targeted 31 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue Skill Players have averaged 30.2 receptions per game (664/22) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.7

Purdue TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power 5 Teams

Purdue Skill Players have averaged 30.2 receptions per game (664/22) since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Purdue’s TEs has 52 receptions in 9 games (5.8 per game) this season — fourth-best among P5 TEs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed just 15.6 receptions per game this season — fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Purdue TEs have caught 7 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Northwestern Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (9 completions/27 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Northwestern has allowed opponents to catch just 10 of 28 passes (36% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 55%

Northwestern has tackled opponents for a loss on just 94 of 825 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) since last season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Northwestern has allowed first downs on 18% of pass attempts in close and late situations since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 30%

Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (9 completions/27 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue has allowed 15.3 yards per completion (2,258 yards/148 completions) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.2

Purdue has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 16 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Purdue has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 16 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12%.

Purdue has allowed opponents to catch just 15 of 40 passes (38% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 55%

Purdue has allowed just 5.3 Yards per Attempt (534 yards/101 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.