Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • Notre Dame (6-3) are -15.5 point favorites vs Navy (3-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-3) visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Navy Midshipmen (4-7) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Baltimore.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Notre Dame vs. Navy is total points.

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Notre Dame vs. Navy Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Notre Dame
Navy

Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 75.9% confidence.

Notre Dame vs Navy Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Navy will cover the spread with 74.4% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Notre Dame and Navy, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Notre Dame Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Notre Dame players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Audric Estime has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Drew Pyne has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Michael Mayer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 8 away games (+11.20 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.25 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Navy have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Navy have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Notre Dame has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Notre Dame is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.65 Units / -30.75% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI

Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Navy has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Navy is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -8.73% ROI
  • Navy is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Navy is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Navy

Notre Dame is undefeated (5-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush — best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .501

Notre Dame is 13-2 (.867) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .419

Notre Dame is 20-2 (.769) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2020 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .464

Notre Dame is 16-1 (.941) when scoring 22 or more points — 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .625

Navy: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

Navy is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes — 11th-worst in FBS; Average: .437

Navy is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards — tied for 11th-worst in FBS; Average: .451

Navy is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .347

Navy is 1-9 (.100) when not forcing a fumble — 12th-worst in FBS; Average: .441

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends

#20 Notre Dame RBs have averaged 13.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (289 yards / 21 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#20 Notre Dame TEs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

#20 Notre Dame TEs have been targeted 43 times with 4-6 yards to go since last season– most among FBS Teams

#20 Notre Dame TEs have been targeted 56 times on 3rd down since last season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

#20 Notre Dame TEs have been targeted 30 times on 3rd down this season– most among Power 5 Teams

Navy Offensive Stats & Trends

Navy Skill Players have averaged just 4.8 receptions per game (38/8) this season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.4

Navy has averaged 71.3 Passing Yards per game (1,426/20) since last season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 234.7*

Navy Skill Players have been targeted 8.2 times per game (165/20) since last season– 2nd lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.9

Navy WRs have been targeted 4.5 times per game (90/20) since last season– tied for lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 21.1

Navy Skill Players have averaged just 4.2 receptions per game (84/20) since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Stats & Trends

#20 Notre Dame has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 256 attempts (0%) this season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 2%

#20 Notre Dame has sacked opponents 24 times on 1st down since last season– tied for 4th most in FBS

Navy Midshipmen Defensive Stats & Trends

Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 13 rushing attempts (39% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 13 rushing attempts (39% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 39 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

Navy has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 41 carries (10.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 4.8

Navy has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 41 carries (10.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.