- Kentucky is a -19.5 point favorite vs. Ohio
- Ohio vs. Kentucky Total(Over/Under): 42.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Ohio Bobcats (2-1) visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (1-2) on Sep. 21 in Lexington, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45pm EDT.
Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -19.5 (-115).
The Ohio vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 42.5 total points.
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Ohio vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ohio | +19.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +850 |
| Kentucky | -19.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -1600 |
Ohio vs Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this game with 90.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio and Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ohio vs Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 74.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Ohio Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Ohio has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ohio has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ohio has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ohio has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+1.95 Units / 3% ROI)
- Ohio has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+2.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+0.60 Units / 7% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ohio players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ohio Player Prop Bets Today
- Parker Navarro has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Parker Navarro has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Ohio Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ohio is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 26.87% ROI).
- Ohio is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Ohio is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Ohio is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kentucky is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Kentucky is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -10.45% ROI
- Kentucky is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Kentucky is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Ohio: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky
Ohio is 17-2 (.773) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2022 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .452
Ohio is 9-2 (.692) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .526
Ohio is 14-2 (.778) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2022 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .456
Ohio is 8-1 (.727) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .552
Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio
Kentucky is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .391
Kentucky is 4-2 (.571) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .480
Kentucky is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .386
Kentucky is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2022 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .411
Matchup Notes for Ohio vs. Kentucky
Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 3,078 passing yards in 16 games (just 192.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS teams. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 192.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 3,078 passing yards in 16 games (just 192.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 25th-worst among FBS offenses. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 192.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s TEs has 5 receptions in 3 games (just 1.7 per game) this season — worst among SEC TEs. Ohio’s defense has allowed 21.7 receptions per game this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ohio’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.5% of 77 attempts this season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 16.9% of attempts this season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Ohio has gained 3,212 yards on 290 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.5% of 77 attempts this season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 16.9% of attempts this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio Offensive Stats & Trends
Ohio’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.5% of 77 attempts this season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 16.9% of attempts this season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Ohio has gained 3,212 yards on 290 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.5% of 77 attempts this season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 16.9% of attempts this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio’s WRs has just 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-worst among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio’s offense has averaged just 0.7 passing TDs per game this season — T-8th-worst among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 0.7 passing TDs per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky TEs have averaged just 4.6 yards per reception (23 yards/5 catches) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7
Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 3,078 passing yards in 16 games (just 192.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS teams. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 192.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky TEs averaged 22.8 yards per reception (364 yards/16 catches) on 1st down in the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 13.2
Kentucky TEs averaged 19.9 yards per reception (576 yards/29 catches) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6
Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 3,078 passing yards in 16 games (just 192.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 25th-worst among FBS offenses. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 192.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Ohio has tackled opponents for a loss on 111 of 454 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Ohio has tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 66 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
Ohio has tackled opponents for a loss on 181 of 854 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2022 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Ohio tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 364 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Ohio tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 364 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 59 attempts (17%) this season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 3 of 15 attempts (20%) on 3rd and long this season– T-2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 8%
Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 19 of 92 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 16th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 3 of 15 attempts (20%) on 3rd and long this season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: 9%
Kentucky has allowed opponents to catch 331 of 489 passes (68% Reception Pct) since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 61%
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