Ohio State vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 06, 2022, 1:45 PM
  • (2-4) are point favorites vs (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) visit Spartan Stadium to take on the Michigan State Spartans (3-4) on Oct. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT in East Lansing.

are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Ohio State vs. Michigan State is total points.

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Ohio State
Michigan State

Ohio State vs Michigan State Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 79.3% confidence.

Ohio State vs Michigan State Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 78.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio State and Michigan State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Ohio State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ohio State players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 46% ROI)
  • TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Completions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hit the Receptions Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 42% ROI)
  • TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Michigan State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan State players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Payton Thorne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jayden Reed has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jayden Reed has hit the Receptions Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.30 Units / 108% ROI)
  • Jalen Berger has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+2.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jarek Broussard has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+8.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.57 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.64 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Michigan State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Ohio State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Ohio State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Ohio State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Michigan State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Michigan State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Michigan State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

#3 Ohio State is undefeated (6-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .364

#3 Ohio State is 18-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2020 season– tied for 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .433

#3 Ohio State is 6-1 (.857) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .492

#3 Ohio State is undefeated (14-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2020 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .576

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Michigan State is 9-2 (.600) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .395

Michigan State is winless (0-6) when having a TD margin of -2 or worse since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .007

Michigan State is 9-1 (.643) when rushing more than 30 times — 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .417

Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Michigan State

Michigan State’s tight end unit has been targeted 34 times this season — fifth-most among P5 TE corps. Ohio State’s defense has allowed 663 receiving yards this season — fifth-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 6,330 passing yards in 17 games (372.4 YPG) since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 335.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 6,330 passing yards in 17 games (372.4 YPG) since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 335.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among P5 defenses.

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 6,330 passing yards in 17 games (372.4 YPG) since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 335.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

#3 Ohio State WRs have caught 52 touchdown passes since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 6,330 passing yards in 17 games (372.4 YPG) since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 335.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 6,330 passing yards in 17 games (372.4 YPG) since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 335.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among P5 defenses.

#3 Ohio State QBs have 7 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 6,330 passing yards in 17 games (372.4 YPG) since the 2021 season — third-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 335.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State have gone for two on 24% of PATs this season– 3rd highest among Power 5 Offenses; Average: 4%

Michigan State’s tight end unit has been targeted 34 times this season — fifth-most among P5 TE corps. Ohio State’s defense has allowed 663 receiving yards this season — fifth-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State RBs have averaged 7.4 Yards per Carry (603 yards/82 carries) in close and late situations since last season– tied for best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.8

Michigan State RBs have averaged 6.5 Yards per Carry (667 yards/102 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Michigan State Skill Players have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 4th most among Power 5 Teams

Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 Ohio State has tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 64 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 15%.

#3 Ohio State has tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 64 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

#3 Ohio State has allowed 60.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 128.6

#3 Ohio State has allowed just 1.5 receiving yards per game (6/4) to RBs this season– best in FBS; Average: 27.7

#3 Ohio State has allowed 60.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– best in FBS; Average: 141.5

Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State has no interceptions (152 pass attempts) this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 36.0

Michigan State has no interceptions and 5 TD passes allowed this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

Michigan State has no interceptions and 5 TD passes allowed this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.4

Opponents have averaged 28.1 completions per game (477 / 17) against Michigan State since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.2

Michigan State has allowed 5,702 Passing Yards since last season– most among Power 5 Teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.