Are We Sure Ohio State Is a Lock for the 2026 College Football Playoff?

For college football bettors, summer should be a time for examining your priors. What is it that we think we know? What does the market think it knows?

At least for the latter, one thing the market feels pretty confident about is Ohio State football odds. The Buckeyes are BetMGM’s short shot to win this season’s national championship, which would be their second in three years.

But if you look hard enough at Ohio State, some curiosities start to emerge. Here’s one: Why is the national title favorite just -275 to make the College Football Playoff?

Don’t misread me – I’d sure like my alma mater to be only -275 to make the playoff. But in the specific context of the top of the market, it’s unusual to see the preseason national favorite priced the same as Oregon and longer than Indiana – two teams from its own conference. 

That market disconnect sent me on a deep dive into Ohio State’s roster, schedule, and futures prices. I ultimately wrote about those conclusions earlier this month in my 2026 college football futures summer betting reveal. 

There are two problems with Ohio State this year. The first and most important is the schedule, which is arguably the most challenging in all of college football. Ohio State must play a road game at Texas in Week 2, plus road games at Iowa, Indiana, and USC in October. There are November home games against Oregon and archrival Michigan.

Now, if Ohio State gets through all that at 12-0 – or even 11-1 – that will be a massive accomplishment. The Buckeyes will be a worthy national championship favorite and deserve the No. 1 playoff seed, regardless of what Notre Dame or the SEC does. 

But what about the other outcome? Ohio State is good, but so are those other teams. What if Ohio State loses at Texas and Indiana, then splits its late-season games with Oregon and Michigan? Will a 9-3 Ohio State team make the playoff cut?

That leads to our second problem: Market expectation. After the national championship run, Ohio State’s reputation is one of blue-chip royalty and playoff certainty. But the Buckeyes have missed the CFP in two of the last five years, and the Big Ten is only getting stronger. The idea that Ohio State is a permanent playoff fixture in the college football odds market is bound to be blown up eventually. 

I think there’s a good chance they’re a good team that is undone by a ridiculously hard schedule. Yet Ohio State is still near the top of the market, priced as a nearly $3 favorite to make the postseason. 

To me, this is a fade opportunity. Ohio State could easily be a playoff team or even win the national championship. But at cost, I’m interested in buying Ohio State to miss the field at 2-to-1.

Yes @ -275 No @ +220