Ohio State vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 2

Texas quarterback Arch Manning throws during warmups before an NCAA college football game against Michigan in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024.
(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Sportsbook Promos This Week
  • Texas Longhorns is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
  • Ohio State vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

Ohio State (1-0) visit Darrell K Royalโ€“Texas Memorial Stadium to take on Texas (1-0) on Sep. 12 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.

The Texas Longhorns are betting favorites in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Ohio State vs. Texas Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

Bet now on Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Ohio State vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Ohio State+1.5 -10849.5 -110+100
Texas -1.5 -11049.5 -108-120

Ohio State vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 52.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ohio State vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 51.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes and all games with BetMGM


  • Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+8.05 Units / 3% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+5.15 Units / 2% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ohio State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.05 Units / 3% ROI)

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State Buckeyes is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Ohio State is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Ohio State is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Ohio State is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas Longhorns is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 89.29% ROI).

  • Texas is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.04% ROI
  • Texas is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 86.96% ROI
  • Texas is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.05 Units / -100% ROI

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Ohio State was 14-1 (.933) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– best in FBS; Average: .624

Ohio State was 9-2 (.818) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Ohio State was 12-1 (.923) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645

Ohio State was 14-1 (.933) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Texas was 10-2 (.833) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Texas was 10-2 (.833) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

Texas was 13-2 (.867) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: .575

Texas was 10-2 (.833) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .442

Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Texas

Texas’s WRs gained 2,501 yards on 172 receptions (14.5 YPR) last season — 26th-best among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas gained 3,255 yards on 257 receptions (12.7 YPR) last season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s WRs gained 2,501 yards on 172 receptions (14.5 YPR) last season — 26th-best among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s offense threw for 3,755 passing yards in 14 games (268.2 YPG) last season — 24th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 234.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

Ohio State’s TEs was targeted 93 times last season — 2nd-most among Big Ten TEs. Texas’s defense allowed 3,054 receiving yards last season — 3rd-most among SEC defenses.

Ohio State’s QBs threw for 3,749 passing yards in 14 games (267.8 YPG) last season — 24th-best among FBS teams. Texas’s defense allowed 234.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State’s offense threw for 3,755 passing yards in 14 games (268.2 YPG) last season — 24th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 234.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

Ohio State caught 313 of 397 passes(79% Reception Pct) last season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 63%

Ohio State WRs were targeted 24 times in the 4th quarter last season– fewest among Power Conference Teams

Ohio State Skill Players caught 34 of 40 passes(85% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Ohio State WRs averaged 17.1 yards per target (188 yards/11 targets) in close and late situations last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 8.4

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas’s WRs gained 2,501 yards on 172 receptions (14.5 YPR) last season — 26th-best among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas gained 3,255 yards on 257 receptions (12.7 YPR) last season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s WRs gained 2,501 yards on 172 receptions (14.5 YPR) last season — 26th-best among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s WRs gained 2,501 yards on 172 receptions (14.5 YPR) last season — 26th-best among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception last season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Ohio State Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State opponents averaged 48.9 Passing Attempts per TD (342 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 21.3

Ohio State allowed 5 rushing TDs on 425 carries (85 Carries Per TD) last season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 25.8

Ohio State allowed 5 rushing TDs on 425 carries (85 Carries Per TD) last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 24

Ohio State’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 28% of PATs last season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Ohio State opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (39 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 3.9

Texas Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7

Texas allowed 9 touchdowns on 292 completions (32.4 Completions Per TD) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.2

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in the SEC; Average: 4.5


Bet now on Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes and all games with BetMGM


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