Last year, Ohio State was one of the playoff’s scrappy at-large teams. While Michigan won the rivalry game and Oregon earned the No. 1 seed in the playoff, it was ultimately Ohio State that played winning football in January and earned the national title.
This year, it’s those same Buckeyes that slide into the role of the rested and rusted juggernaut program, awaiting a playoff team that’s already won a postseason game.
Can the ACC’s third-place team really knock off the champs?
Ohio State vs. Miami Odds
- Point Spread: Ohio State -9.5
- Moneyline: Ohio State -375 | Miami +290
- Total: 42.5
Ohio State vs. Miami: Cotton Bowl Playoff Game
Ohio State can repeat as college football national champions with just three more wins, and the analytics like their chances. Ohio State leads all FBS with +0.34 EPA/play. The Buckeyes are top-10 in defensive success rate and top-5 in offensive success rate.
But if you’re looking for reasons for skepticism, Ohio State also completed its 12-0 regular-season record without a win against any team in the top 10 of Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. According to that metric, the Buckeyes’ best win was actually the forgotten early road win at Washington.
Miami is an SP+ top-10 team, alongside everyone left in the CFP except for Alabama.
Reuben Bain Jr. is a potential No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and should be the best player on the field in this game. Could Miami’s excellent defensive pressure limit Ohio State’s offense?
That would be the recipe for a competitive quarterfinal for the Hurricanes.
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