Oklahoma vs Auburn Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 5

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Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter (27) carries the ball against Alabama during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
(AP Photo/Butch Dill)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2024, 12:03 PM
  • The Oklahoma is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Auburn
  • The Oklahoma vs. Auburn Total(Over/Under): 45.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

The Oklahoma Sooners (3-1) visit Pat Dye Field at Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on the Auburn Tigers (2-2) on Sep. 28 in Auburn, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Oklahoma is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Oklahoma vs. Auburn Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Oklahoma vs. Auburn Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Oklahoma-2.5 -10545.5 -110-125
Auburn +2.5 -11545.5 -110+105

Oklahoma vs Auburn Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Auburn will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oklahoma and Auburn, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oklahoma vs Auburn Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Auburn will cover the spread with 57.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Oklahoma has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Oklahoma has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Oklahoma have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Oklahoma has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 2% ROI)
  • Auburn has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Auburn have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Auburn have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Auburn has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+0.70 Units / 8% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Oklahoma players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oklahoma Player Prop Bets Today

  • Gavin Sawchuk has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Andrel Anthony has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Nic Anderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jackson Arnold has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jalil Farooq has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 20% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Auburn players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Auburn Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jarquez Hunter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.10 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Rivaldo Fairweather has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)

Oklahoma Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).

Auburn Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Auburn is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.85 Units / 19.1% ROI).

Oklahoma: Keys to the Game vs. Auburn

Oklahoma is 12-2 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .674

Oklahoma is 7-1 (.875) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .622

Oklahoma is 7-1 (.875) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 11th-best in FBS; Average: .547

Oklahoma is 10-3 (.769) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .457

Auburn: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma

Auburn is 1-6 (.143) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .507

Auburn is 1-6 (.143) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .536

Auburn is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Auburn is 7-7 (.500) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .692

Matchup Notes for Oklahoma vs. Auburn

Auburn’s RBs has 7 receptions in 4 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn’s RBs has rushed for 569 yards on 79 carries (7.2 YPC) this season — 7th-best among FBS RBs. Oklahoma’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC to RBs this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Auburn’s RBs has rushed for 569 yards on 79 carries (7.2 YPC) this season — 7th-best among FBS RBs. Oklahoma’s defense have allowed just 2.4 YPC this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s RBs has rushed for 329 yards on 80 carries (just 4.1 YPC) this season — T-21st-worst among FBS RBs. Auburn’s defense have allowed just 3.4 YPC to RBs this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s RBs has rushed for 329 yards on 80 carries (just 4.1 YPC) this season — T-21st-worst among FBS RBs. Auburn’s defense have allowed just 3.1 YPC this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Bauer Sharp (OKL) has gained 116 yards on 14 receptions (just 8.3 YPR) this season — 5th-worst of Qualified Tight Ends. Auburn’s defense has allowed just 5.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma RBs averaged -1.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (-10 yards / 8 touches) on 1st down last week– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Oklahoma Skill Players have averaged just 9.2 yards per reception (690 yards/75 catches) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.2

Oklahoma TEs were targeted 6 times in the 4th quarter last week– most among SEC Teams

Oklahoma TEs have been targeted 11 times in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-most among Power Conference Teams

Oklahoma TEs have been targeted 11 times in the 4th quarter this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Auburn Offensive Stats & Trends

Auburn WRs have no touchdowns on 25 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.7

Auburn WRs have averaged 23.6 yards per reception (307 yards/13 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.2

Auburn RBs have fumbled 5 times this season– most among FBS Teams

Auburn TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Auburn QBs have 5 completions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Oklahoma Sooners Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma allowed passes of 40+ yards on 2 of 21 attempts (10%) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Oklahoma’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs since the 2023 season– 2nd-highest in FBS; Average: 7%

Oklahoma’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs since the 2023 season– 2nd-highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Oklahoma’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in the SEC; Average: 8%

Oklahoma has forced 8 fumbles this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Auburn Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Auburn has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% (10 completions/20 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 65%

Auburn has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (75 completions/142 attempts) this season– 3rd-best in the SEC; Average: 59%

Auburn has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (75 completions/142 attempts) this season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: 60%

Auburn has allowed 11 TDs in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-most in the SEC

Auburn has allowed 2.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (323 yards / 116 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.